MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[TechnicalTrader]

This is something I've been very excited about and am looking forward to playing and following.

jlani93 has volunteered to help me track this system. This is what it has done over the last four seasons:

(Straight up, RL also was up, just slightly lower but also in the green)
2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

SYSTEM:

The system is extremely simple, we are betting on a favorite who's line has increased in their favor (or numerically has inclined) over their last three games, going up against a team with regressing odds (their odds have numerically increased) over their last three games.

Example:

Day 1) Team A plays team Y and their line is -120
Day 2) Team A plays team Y and their line is -150
Day 3) Team A plays team B and their line is -180

Day 1) Team B plays team Z and their line is +120
Day 2) Team B plays team Z and their line is +130
Day 3) Team B plays team A and their line is +145

We would then play Team A straight up and also on the run line.

More info on how the system works can be found here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/3374454-can-nhl-mlb-handicapped-based-team-odds-history-current-team-odds-alone-p3.html#post26865484
(begin reading at post #86)

MONEY MANAGEMENT

As you can see the system can be very active so on some days so we might see up to 6 picks a day. That is why I STRONGLY suggest to NOT risk to win more than 2% of your BR on a single bet. I also recommend to not chase. This is not a chase system. I also suggest to play not only straight up, but also the run line on each pick.

I personally will only be risking to win 0.5% of my bankroll on each pick and my MLB bankroll is $10K.

History says May will most likely be a down month while July is it's strongest performing month. I am hoping to get our first picks on April 6th or April 7th.


FINAL NOTES

jlani93, thank you again for helping out. Hit me up if you need any more help. I'll try to answer as many questions as possible during the first few days but then will have to focus on a few other systems I am running. I will also have my 1st inning thread up in a bout two weeks, which will also drain a lot of my time.

Go get 'em jlani93!

[doubledime]

Good luck TT

[homerbush]

What % on the money line vs % on the run line?

[garvardntl]

Which resource do you use to determine prices? Closing lines at SBRODDS?

[thekoreanmang]

Good luck, TT.

[TechnicalTrader]

-Thanks Mang

-I use Killersports closing lines which are almost identical to covers lines

-The avg SU line is -160, avg RL is +132 so on a SU bet, I'd risk an avg of 1.6% of BR if my wished return is 1%. On RL bets it will be 1%.

Again, I am only risking to win 0.5%...

-Thanks DD

[Slanina]

Nice! Looking forward to it.

[BPulse]

Marking this... looking forward to watching...

[JAKEPEAVY21]

interested to see how this shakes out...

[Enkhbat]

I have an excel sheet with the closing lines on all teams, I will check to make sure the system's picks are correct

[TechnicalTrader]

If the below lines stay where they are or trend in the direction they are trending now; SEA/HOU will be a play tomorrow

[philasmoke27]

i tried to follow this but lines move so much on bookmaker.

[TechnicalTrader]

OAK looks like a play but those lines are super tight. If OAKs line remains lower than +105 we have a play...

[jlani93]

PLAY 1) OAK A’s -107

Good Afternoon! It’s confirmed. We have our first play!


PLAY 1) OAK A’s -107, risking 1-unit (1% of bankroll).


Record: 0-0
Total RoI: n/a%
Will update w/bankroll info after the game.

*If you haven't done so already, please take a few minutes to read post #1, (posted by TT), for a description of this system.

[Sir-Ater]

.5 ml, .5 rl?

[cyberbabble]

This is the 4th game in a 4 game series with LAA @OAK so the 3 qualifier games are between the same teams. Is it a requirement that the 3 qualifier games and the bettable game be between the same teams like it is here?

Is it required that all four games be on consecutive days like it is here?

Thanks

[cyberbabble]

From KILLERSPORTS, I see the following lines:
4/3/17 oak -102 laa -108
4/4/17 oak 109 laa -119
4/5/17 oak 105 laa -115
These do not appear to fit the pattern of 3 declining/increasing lines for the teams. For both teams the lines go one way between games 1 and 2 and then go the opposite direction for games 2 and 3.
Am I misunderstanding the rules for the qualifier games?
Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

I see the following lines:

TODAY'S GAME, AND THE LAST TWO:

LAA, -119
LAA, -115
LAA, -103

OAK, 109
OAK, 105
OAK, -107

I am also getting a signal on TOR for today.

As for how I play the system. I split up my wager in two seperate bets, 0.5% of BR on the ML and 0.5% on the RL.

Proof:

[TechnicalTrader]

This is the 4th game in a 4 game series with LAA @OAK so the 3 qualifier games are between the same teams. Is it a requirement that the 3 qualifier games and the bettable game be between the same teams like it is here?

Is it required that all four games be on consecutive days like it is here?

Thanks

No the teams previous opponents are irrelevant, just their previous lines.

[juveitalia]

I see the following lines:

TODAY'S GAME, AND THE LAST TWO:

LAA, -119
LAA, -115
LAA, -103

OAK, 109
OAK, 105
OAK, -107

I am also getting a signal on TOR for today.

As for how I play the system. I split up my wager in two seperate bets, 0.5% of BR on the ML and 0.5% on the RL.

Proof:

TOR a go?

[TechnicalTrader]

Yes

[cyberbabble]

TT
Thanks for answering my questions.
I'm trying to learn SDQL. If I find something good I'll post it.
Good Luck.

[Slanina]

Grand Salami!!

[TechnicalTrader]

Grand Salami!!

Yes, it was a very rewarding day and although getting off to a 4-0 start is great, the mlb season is a marathon amd we have hundreds of bets in front of us. The day could've easily ended 0-4. Please practice correct money management and do not risk too much on these bets.

I'm not sure if we'll have any bets on Friday, as of right now I'm not seeing any signals.

[codeinefeen]

Day 1) Team A plays team Y and their line is -120
Day 2) Team A plays team Y and their line is -150
Day 3) Team A plays team B and their line is -180

Day 1) Team B plays team Z and their line is +120
Day 2) Team B plays team Z and their line is +130
Day 3) Team B plays team A and their line is +145

We would then play Team A straight up and also on the run line.

is there a sample of a real team cause this is really hard for me to understand. please. thank you

[TechnicalTrader]

Take a look at the Angels' odds from April 4th until April 6th then look at how the A's lines evolved from the 4th until the 6th.




We are only looking at closing lines!

The Angels odds went from:

-125 to -119 to -114

The A's lines went from:

+102 to -101 to -116

We took the Athletics on the third day because their odds got stronger and stronger over three days. This is called momentum trading or trading with the trend.

I honestly do not know how to make this clearer. This is all I can do for you, if you still don't understand how the system works, reread the first post or maybe ask someone else in here.

Sorry if I can't help you,
TT

[oilcountry99]

It doesn't boast confidence if the guy running the thread doesn't have all the plays....jlani93

[TechnicalTrader]

"She" is using the same tools I am. this is a transaction period, where I will slowly school her regarding the tools I use and the SDQL query.

That TOR play popped up a few hours before the first pitch. She was on the road and I just happened to pick it up. She would've been on it before the first pitch anyway and would've had it posted before the first inning. This is the first time she's done something like this, so please be patient.

On top of that, neither of us are obligated to doing this. I'm trying to help people make money and so is she!

Again please be patient. In about a week or two this thread will be all hers!

Let the numbers talk.

[2buckluck]

[quote=jlani93;26892053]Good Afternoon! It’s confirmed. We have our first play!


PLAY 1) OAK A’s -107, risking 1-unit (1% of bankroll).


Record: 0-0
Total RoI: n/a%

TOR a go?

Yes

Yes, it was a very rewarding day and although getting off to a 4-0 start is great, the mlb season is a marathon ......

&lt;br&gt;<br>
&lt;br&gt;<br>

Great thread, will be following for sure... Question, though... I see the mentions of OAK and TOR as plays yesterday, and then TT you say 4-0 day... TT are you saying 4-0 with this and your other thread combined? Just trying to clarify for the sake of this thread...

So not trying to be a pain but you can see how that might be confusing...

[Tawpper306]

[QUOTE=2buckluck;26893706]

Good Afternoon! It’s confirmed. We have our first play!


PLAY 1) OAK A’s -107, risking 1-unit (1% of bankroll).


Record: 0-0
Total RoI: n/a%






&lt;br&gt;<br>
&lt;br&gt;<br>

Great thread, will be following for sure... Question, though... I see the mentions of OAK and TOR as plays yesterday, and then TT you say 4-0 day... TT are you saying 4-0 with this and your other thread combined? Just trying to clarify for the sake of this thread...

So not trying to be a pain but you can see how that might be confusing...

splits the bets 0.5% ml 0.5% rl= 1 unit

2 games 4 bets


if my understanding is correct

also, THANK YOU FOR DOING THIS

[TechnicalTrader]

[QUOTE=Tawpper306;26893710]

splits the bets 0.5% ml 0.5% rl= 1 unit

2 games 4 bets


if my understanding is correct

also, THANK YOU FOR DOING THIS

Correct, that is exactly how I am playing it! You're welcome

[TechnicalTrader]

[QUOTE=2buckluck;26893706]

Good Afternoon! It’s confirmed. We have our first play!


PLAY 1) OAK A’s -107, risking 1-unit (1% of bankroll).


Record: 0-0
Total RoI: n/a%






&lt;br&gt;<br>
&lt;br&gt;<br>

Great thread, will be following for sure... Question, though... I see the mentions of OAK and TOR as plays yesterday, and then TT you say 4-0 day... TT are you saying 4-0 with this and your other thread combined? Just trying to clarify for the sake of this thread...

So not trying to be a pain but you can see how that might be confusing...

Yes, the ML and RL bets are separate bets and should be calculated that way. The risk I take on a ML is much different than that on the RL.

Let's do this and keep this ball rolling!

[2buckluck]

PERFECT , thanks for that clarification !! (sorry I missed it before, I see you said you'd play ML and RL bets in post #18... )
Great work , I know it's early but I love to see the work behind it and the explanation, thanks!

[pabonaparte]

On surface, this is very simple, like all things genius. I'm on board!

[TechnicalTrader]

On surface, this is very simple, like all things genius. I'm on board!

Right on!