UFC 273 Burns vs. Chimaev MMA Odds and Picks

Khamzat Chimaev's unprecedented march toward the welterweight title faces its toughest test on Saturday night when he stands across the cage from Gilbert Burns on the main card of UFC 273. Read on for our Burns-Chimaev picks and predictions.

Khamzat Chimaev has demolished everything in his path. The Russian-born, Swedish-trained instrument of destruction has basically gone untouched during his four-fight tenure under the UFC umbrella, racking up four dominant, stoppage victories. In his last trip to the Octagon, "Borz" made quick work of Li Jingliang, rendering his foe unconscious with a first-round rear-naked choke.

Although more digital ink has been spilled about the sheer dominance of Chimaev heading into this bout, Gilbert Burns sports a higher-profile resume. After failing to wrest welterweight gold away from Kamaru Usman at UFC 258, Burns solidified his position amongst the elite at 170 pounds with a spirited decision victory over division stalwart Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson in the co-main event of UFC 264 back in July.

Here are my picks and predictions for the UFC 273 welterweight showdown between Burns and Chimaev (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Burns vs. Chimaev Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, April 9, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV, ESPN+Location: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL

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Burns vs. Chimaev Odds Analysis

Both Chimaev and Burns opened at -110, but those odds have swung wildly in Chimaev's favor. Chimaev is a massive -490 favorite at Draftkings Sportsbook, so if you're expecting him to win, it might make sense to bet on a winning method.

If underdogs are more your speed, the very dangerous Burns can be snatched up as high as +400 over at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Gilbert Burns Betting Profile

A grappling ace with multiple BJJ world championships to his name, Burns is the No. 2 ranked 170-pounder in the UFC, and he comes by that distinction honestly. Despite losing in his bid for the welterweight strap, the Brazilian's resume is littered with top-tier opponents and even an ex-world champion.

The 35-year-old boasts an impressive 5-1 record since moving up to welterweight, counting fellow grappling wizard Demian Maia, Gunnar Nelson, former 170-pound kingpin Tyron Woodley, and the aforementioned Thompson amongst his growing list of victims.

An undersized welterweight, Burns' vaunted grappling may not serve him well if he ends up underneath Chimaev, who would be more than happy to "smesh" him with a seemingly unending supply of fists.

Khamzat Chimaev Betting Profile

A physically dominant welterweight who does his best work when he's steamrolling his opponents to the floor and caving in their skulls with vicious ground-and-pound, Chimaev is one of the best prospects the UFC has seen in years.

Taking virtually no damage in his four UFC bouts, the 27-year-old easily dispatched John Phillips, Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert, and Jingliang, with Phillips being his only victim who escaped the first round.

Of course, such sheer dominance leads to many unanswered questions. No one has ever really tested Chimaev's chin or gas tank, and that becomes more of a factor if he can get past Burns and eventually book a date with the seemingly indestructible Usman.

Burns vs. Chimaev Picks

Chimaev to win (-490) ????Chimaev to win by KO/TKO (+120) ????

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Burns vs. Chimaev Predictions

Chimaev to win (-490)

Someone may eventually derail the Chimaev hype train, but I don't think it'll be Burns. Sure, Burns is a seasoned veteran who has fought the toughest the division has to offer, but it figures to be a nightmarish stylistic matchup for "Durinho." The much larger Chimaev will physically bully Burns along the fence and in the clinch until he eventually drags this bout to the mat.

Chimaev to win by KO/TKO

Once Chimaev gets top control, Burns is in for a world of hurt. Although he's an excellent grappler, Burns will be under siege from the bottom, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to pull off anything slick from his back. Instead, Chimaev will drop a violent series of hammers on Burns en route to a TKO victory.

Where to Bet on UFC 273

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Burns-Chimaev picks made 4/6/2022 at 9:48 p.m. ET.