UFC 273: Dern vs. Torres MMA Odds and Picks

In a pivotal matchup in the women's strawweight division, Mackenzie Dern and Tecia Torres look to cement their place as a contender at 115 pounds on UFC 273’s main card in Jacksonville. Here are our Dern-Torres picks for UFC 273.

The contrast in their respective resumes may be stark, but Dern and Torres are headed to Jacksonville in a similar spot in the UFC strawweight pecking order, with both looking to join the conversation as potential title challengers. Dern joined the promotion in 2018 with a solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree and just a handful of pro fights to her name. She faces arguably her stiffest test yet with a respectable 6-2 UFC record.

Torres, by comparison, is going on eight years as a UFC strawweight. However, though she’s amassed a 9-5 slate in the Octagon, she’s remained bound to the gatekeeper label throughout her promotional stint. Now riding a three-fight win streak, she’ll look to rejoin the division’s top tier and inch closer to an ever-elusive title shot.

Will Dern’s lauded grappling prove enough to claim a highly coveted victory, or will Torres’ experience and volume striking keep her win streak alive?

Here are my Dern-Torres picks and predictions for UFC 273's strawweight bout (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dern vs. Torres Fight Info

Date: Saturday, April 9, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV, ESPN+Location: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL

Dern vs. Torres Odds Analysis

As of Tuesday night, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet all have this compelling matchup as a pick’em, with FanDuel listing the streaking, more experienced Torres as a +104 underdog.

The line on Torres’ usual method of victory is a little more attractive, as a win by decision is at +160 with FanDuel. As for Dern, the BJJ ace sits at -128 on the same sportsbook, and if you’re banking on her adding yet another tapout to her record, both Caesars and FanDuel have a Dern submission win at a solid value of +250.

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Mackenzie Dern Betting Profile

Specialists are an endangered species in this evolving, often-cruel sport, but Dern’s bread and butter has served her well thus far. She’s bested six opponents and tapped four of them in eight walks to the Octagon. The 29-year-old still looks like a relative neophyte when slinging leather, but to her credit, she’s proven a game dance partner on the feet and packs a deceptive wallop in her mitts.

As is often the case with BJJ players, Dern’s losses have come against methodical strikers averse to indulging her desire for a grappling match, having most recently fallen to the Muay Thai stylings of Marina Rodriguez this past October. Torres is a similarly gifted and far more experienced striker.

Tecia Torres Betting Profile

Like Dern, Torres joined the UFC roster with a fairly lean resume and never left. A contestant on "The Ultimate Fighter Season 20," which launched the promotion’s strawweight division, Torres’ name is synonymous with the weight class itself, but she’s been relegated to gatekeeping duties after a rough 2018 and 2019. She dropped four straight in that time, with three of those defeats coming against now-former champions.

Not to be written off, Torres has since bounced back with three straight wins against Brianna Van Buren, Sam Hughes, and two-time foe Angela Hill, earning those victories with her patented footwork and combination striking. The 32-year-old has yet to challenge for the strawweight crown in 14 UFC bouts, but a win over Dern would earn her another dance with an elite foe.

Dern vs. Torres Picks

Torres (+104) ???Torres by decision (+160) ???

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Dern vs. Torres Predictions

Torres (+104)

Though Dern has beaten some respectable duellists over her UFC stint, she’s taken a pair of losses from solid technicians on the feet in Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas. Torres fits that bill, all while boasting the rare ability to strike often and effectively off the back foot.

Dern will likely play the aggressor in pursuit of takedowns, but with her edge in experience and technical striking, Torres should be hip to that game and respond with lots of lateral movement and her patented pitter-patter in bunches to make it four in a row.

Torres by decision (+160)

Anyone familiar with Torres’ style and resume will know a stoppage win for her is about as likely as a Loch Ness Monster sighting, with all but two of her 18 pro bouts going the distance. The strawweight mainstay doesn’t pack a ton of power in her mitts, but she mitigates that by throwing volume from the first bell to the last.

Her opponent may not need much of an opening to secure another submission, but I’m banking on Torres’ veteran savvy and unwavering commitment to her game plans to earn her another nod on the scorecards.

Where to Bet on UFC Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Dern-Torres picks made 4/5/2022 at 11:44 p.m. ET.