Top Serie A Matchday 30 Picks: Goals in the Rome Derby

The title race is heating up in Italy, with four teams vying to be crowned champions. Read on for our Serie A Matchday 30 picks.

Three of the four teams in the title race picked up all three points on Matchday 29, with Inter Milan scoring in the 93rd minute to salvage a point against Torino. AC Milan remain in the pole position, three points up on Napoli with the tiebreaker in hand. Juventus continued their winning ways against struggling Sampdoria on March 12. The shock result of the week was Atalanta failing to win at home against 19th placed Genoa. That extended Atalanta's poor run of form and earned Genoa their seventh consecutive draw, one short of the league record.

For this week's Serie A picks, we'll travel to the capital for a red hot derby, up to Tuscany where there are sure to be plenty of goals, and bank on the defending champions earning a win at home.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Serie A Matchday 30 schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 30 Picks

Roma-Lazio both teams to score, Over 2.5 goals, and Over 5.5 corners (+115 via DraftKings) ????Empoli-Hellas Verona Over 3.5 goals (+175 via PointsBet)?????Inter to win and both to score (+150 via DraftKings)????

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Serie A Matchday 30 Betting Picks

Roma-Lazio both teams to score, Over 2.5 goals, and Over 5.5 corners (+115)

The Rome Derby is always a premier fixture on the Serie A schedule, and it rarely disappoints in terms of entertainment. While it can be tempting to look for a way into a tense, cagey affair as is usually the case in such an intense rivalry there are plenty of reasons to back goals in this one.

Roma have the second-best xGF in all of Serie A this season, ahead of teams like Milan, Napoli, and Juve. They have had the third-best xGF in the league since the calendar turned to 2022, while Lazio rank fifth. Lazio have scored a whopping 58 goals and conceded 42 all season, and seven of their 10 games in 2022 have featured three or more goals in seven of ten games. The previous fixture was a 3-2 thriller on Sept. 26, with three goals in the opening half.

For both Roma and Lazio, Atalanta's slump means there is now the chance to leapfrog La Dea and put pressure on Juve for that fourth and final Champions League spot. To get this Over even money, we'll add Over 5.5 corners to the mix as well. This has gone Over in both Roma and Lazio's past six Serie A matches.

Empoli-Hellas Verona Over 3.5 goals (+175)

Empoli's home games at Carlo Castellani Stadium have featured plenty of goals, and we're expecting more of the same this Sunday.

Empoli have conceded 37 goals at home this season, by far the most of any team in Serie A. They've also scored their fair share at 22, including two in matches against Juventus, Roma, and Milan respectively. Verona are one of the highest-scoring teams in the division, ranking fourth in goals for and 10th in xGF. All but one of Empoli's home games since Dec. 6 cashed the Over on this line, and Verona's away games in 2022 have featured a combined 17 goals, tied for third-most in the league.

You can take the Asian Total of 3 at +125 if you want a bit more insurance. Or you can take the +175 at PointsBet, sit back, and root for goals.

Both teams to score and Inter to win (+150)

It has been quite the fall from grace for Inter over the past few weeks. They won just one of their past six games and are now behind bitter rivals Milan for the Scudetto. However, a perfect opportunity presents itself to get back on track when Fiorentina visits the San Siro.

Despite tough results against Genoa and Sassuolo, Inter still has the best xGF over the past six games in the league at 13.69. It's been their defense that has been the problem, as their xGA of 8.9 puts them 13th. Fiorentina ranks fifth in xGF over that time period, but their home-away split on the season has been noticeable. They have collected the third-most points in Serie A at the Artemio Franchi but are 10th away from home. Fiorentina scored in three straight away matches and six of seven going back to Nov. 27.

A team with the underlying profile of Inter can't be kept quiet for long. We'll bank on them to beat a solid Viola side who can convert on their chances for our final Serie A pick of Matchday 30.

Serie A Matchday 30 Quick Picks

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Where to Bet on Serie A

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for Serie A:

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