Top Serie A Matchday 29 Picks: Can Juve Continue Their Winning Ways?

Last updated: March 11, 2022 4:07 AM EST • 4 min read X Social Google News Link

We're into the stretch run of the Serie A season, with multiple teams still in the race for the title. Keep reading for our Serie A Matchday 29 picks.
AC Milan's massive 1-0 win on Sunday puts them in the driver's seat for the Scudetto for the time being. With Inter Milan potentially having a tricky game against Torino this week, the Rossoneri could move ahead even further if they take care of business against Empoli on Saturday. One slip up from either team could also allow Napoli to get back into the mix, and all three teams are now looking over their shoulders for Juventus.
For this week's Serie A picks, we'll bank on an underreported hot streak to continue, go back to the well for a familiar Over, and for a mid-table team to win at home.
Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Serie A Matchday 29 schedule.
Top Serie A Matchday 29 Picks
Juventus to win and both teams to score no (+170 via DraftKings Sportsbook)?????Salernitana-Sassuolo Over 3.5 goals (+144 via FanDuel Sportsbook)?????Fiorentina -1 (+175 via PointsBet)???
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Serie A Matchday 29 Betting Picks
Juventus to win and both teams to score no (+170)
With all the attention in the league drawn to the title race among the top three teams, Juve's current run of form has gone somewhat unnoticed.
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Since suffering a loss to Atalanta way back on Nov. 27, the Old Lady haven't tasted a loss in Serie A play. Granted, there have been some disappointing draws in there, but this current streak goes to show much this team has bought into manager Massimiliano Allegri's style of play. This has borne fruit in their defensive record, as their 25 goals conceded are third-fewest this season.
Their opponents in Sampdoria suffered a brutal 2-1 loss to Udinese last week and are just four points from safety. Over their last three games, they are 19th in expected goals for and 17th in expected goals against. They are also 20th in expected points over that time frame.
Juve are likely to be getting Paulo Dybala back, which would be a big boost going forward with his seven goals and five assists on the season. They should have more than enough to beat Sampdoria.
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Salernitana-Sassuolo Over 3.5 goals (+144)
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's why we're going back to the well for what is expected to be another match full of goals.
Sassuolo's splits between their scoring record at the Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore and away from home are noticeable. Sassuolo have scored 30 goals on the road, the second-most in the league. Their 24.81 xGF on the road puts them third in Serie A. At home, they've put the ball in the back of the net just 19 times on 19.90 xGF, putting them 12th and 11th respectively. Their 20.84 xGA at home puts them 14th in Serie A.
Seven of Sassuolo's last nine away games went Over this total. You can add both teams to score to give this even more juice, but I personally don't trust Salernitana nearly enough to risk it.
Fiorentina -1 (+175)
For our final pick, we travel to Tuscany where the visitors are in tough against the home side.
Bologna are safe from relegation but have hit a tough run of form as of recently. They've won just twice in their last nine Serie A games, and are 14th in points away from home this season. They've generated a measly 2.87 xGF over their last three games, and a suspension to defender Arthur Theate will make the trip that much harder.
If not for their dreadful away record, Fiorentina could be challenging for a Champions League spot. Only five other teams have collected more points at home than the Viola, and only Inter have won more home games. Fiorentina rank third in goals at home and are fifth in xGA at home.
With Fiorentina at relatively full strength, this is the perfect spot to get back to winning ways after a draw to Verona on Sunday.
Serie A Matchday 29 Quick Picks
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