We have a relatively traditional schedule in the Premier League this week, with only one additional match added to the customary 10. Check out our Premier League props and best bets for Matchday 36 based on the best EPL odds.
The Premier League title race is over, according to our best sports betting apps. Despite being only one point up on Arsenal (albeit with a game in hand), Manchester City are as short as -1667 (via BetMGM) to win the league. FanDuel offers the longest odds on City hoisting the trophy for a third straight season at a still-unbettable -950.
There's plenty of intrigue at the top of the table, though. Liverpool continue to attempt to chase down Newcastle and/or Manchester United for a top-four spot. They're only one point back of United and three behind Newcastle, though both teams have a game in hand over Liverpool.
At the bottom of the table, Southampton are all but relegated. With only three matches remaining, they sit eight points back of safety. However, survival is very much still a possibility for Leeds and Leicester, who sit just two points back of 17th-place Everton - who play City this week - and three points back of 16th-place Nottingham Forest.
It's all to play for as the season winds down.
Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 36
(odds via DraftKings)
- Leeds (+380) vs. Newcastle (-150)
- Chelsea (-205) vs. Nottingham Forest (+550)
- Manchester United (-225) vs. Wolves (+650)
- Southampton (+180) vs. Fulham (+150)
- Aston Villa (+130) vs. Spurs (+205)
- Crystal Palace (-115) vs. Bournemouth (+310)
- Everton (+750) vs. Manchester City (-275)
- Brentford (+110) vs. West Ham (+250)
- Arsenal (-135) vs. Brighton (+320)
- Leicester (+400) vs. Liverpool (-175)
- Newcastle (-105) vs. Brighton (+245)
Check out our top soccer picks.
Premier League best bets for Matchday 36
- Moneyline: Nottingham Forest double chance (+165 via PointsBet) vs. Chelsea ⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Manchester United ML + both teams to score: no (+133 via theScore Bet) vs. Wolves ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Fulham (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Southampton ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Manchester City ML + both teams to score: yes (+200 via bet365) vs. Everton ⭐⭐⭐
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Premier League top picks
Moneyline: Nottingham Forest double chance vs. Chelsea (+165 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Nottingham Forest desperately need to take a point from Saturday's match against Chelsea. They're three points clear of 18th in the table and can nearly secure safety with at least a draw, as 17th-place Everton face Manchester City, 18th-place Leicester get a hungry Liverpool squad, and 19th-place Leeds square off with third-place Newcastle.
Chelsea finally got their first win last game since welcoming back Frank Lampard as interim manager, though it wasn't a convincing victory. The scoreboard read 3-1 for Chelsea after 90 minutes, but the Blues had just 1.3 expected goals to Bournemouth's 1.2, and the two teams had almost the same number of shots, as well.
Forest have been miserable away from home this season, but we're throwing some of that data out at this point in the season. When millions upon millions of dollars in sponsorships and broadcast contracts are on the line, teams tend to play a bit differently during the final few games. Meanwhile, Chelsea's season is over. They're firmly entrenched in the middle of the table, and the club looks as though it's given up on Lampard.
Most of our best sports betting sites have Forest double chance priced around +150 to +155, making PointsBet's +165 very enticing.
Parlay: Manchester United ML + both teams to score: no vs. Wolves (+133 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wolves have pulled off a real masterclass to climb out of the relegation zone. After taking only 10 points from their first 15 matches, they've taken 30 from their last 20 games. The latter average would put them in ninth if achieved over the course of the entire season.
However, with safety achieved and not much else to play for, Wolves will be the hunted on Saturday.
As it is, Wolves have struggled away from home this season. They've taken just 0.65 points per away match - compared to an impressive 1.61 per home match - and managed the second-fewest goals and expected goals in those affairs.
At the other end stands an eager United side in desperate need of three points if it hopes to play in the Champions League next season. United are coming off disappointing 1-0 defeats to both Brighton and West Ham, allowing Liverpool to creep that much closer to fourth place. Both of those matches were on other grounds, though, and United have been a different beast at Old Trafford this season.
The Red Devils have taken 2.44 points per home match, the third-most in the league. They've also conceded a league-low eight goals at home (the second-fewest being Newcastle's 13). They've held clean sheets in each of their last five Premier League home matches, winning four of them.
The late-season narrative matches the data in this one, making it a four-star pick. This parlay is priced out similarly across our best sportsbooks, with DraftKings' +130 offering being the most competitive alternative to this price at theScore Bet. FanDuel has this parlay at +127, while BetMGM and PointsBet have it at +125.
Moneyline: Fulham vs. Southampton (+150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I have a soft spot for Southampton, as they acted as a feeder squad of sorts to Liverpool for many years. However, their time in the Premier League has come to an end, for now.
With relegation almost a certainty, Southampton are simply playing out the remainder of their games. They've taken just three points from their last 10 matches and haven't won a game since March 4. Southampton's 0.59 points per home match are the fewest in the league by a mile, and they've both scored the fewest and conceded the most goals at home this season - what a combo.
On the surface, it would appear Fulham have hit a bad run of form, taking only six points from their last five matches. However, those three defeats came in away matches to Liverpool and Aston Villa - two of the best home sides in the league - and a home game against Manchester City. Additionally, all three games were decided by just one goal.
Now, Fulham gets striker Aleksandar Mitrovic back from suspension, and he'll be eager to go following an eight-match ban.
Fulham are universally priced at +150 to win across all of our best sports betting apps. I initially had this as a three-star pick, but Southampton are so putrid that it feels wrong not to add the extra star.
Parlay: Manchester City ML + both teams to score: yes vs. Everton (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
You're probably looking at the second leg of this parlay and wondering if I'm crazy. The answer could very well be yes, but there's at least some logic behind this pick.
Let's get the easy part out of the way. City should have no problem winning this match. Yes, Everton badly need the points and are coming off a massive win at Brighton. That's all fine and dandy, but with the league on the line, don't expect City to let the points slip away against a clearly inferior side on Sunday.
Now, to the second leg. City have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (the fewest in away matches) on the lowest expected goals against total. However, we're seeing a pattern emerge with the back-to-back defending champions.
City have conceded in six straight Premier Matches in which goalkeeper Ederson started, and you can make that eight of nine if you include Champions League play. The club has held just four clean sheets since March 18, and three of those games featured backup 'keeper Stefan Ortega in net.
Now, maybe this is all silly and something I've noticed only because I roster Ederson in fantasy. So, if that delicious trend doesn't do it for you, how about the fact that Everton will give everything they have to win this match at home in front of their supporters and just put five goals past Brighton?
I prefer playing this parlay rather than a City win combined with a goal total, as the result plus Over 2.5 goals doesn't even get us to even money. I can see this game ending with a score line similar to that of City's last match against Leeds (a 2-1 win), so I'll ride with this option.
Caesars offers the second-best odds on this bet, as its match result: City + both teams to score option is priced at +190. FanDuel has this parlay at +176, while DraftKings and PointsBet come in at a similar +175 price point.
Premier League Matchday 36 best bets made 5/11/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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