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France manager Didier Deschamps shouts to his team as we dive into the most appealing picks and predictions for France's Euro 2024 match against Poland.
France manager Didier Deschamps shouts to his team against Argentina during the second half of the 2022 World Cup final at Lusail Stadium. Photo by Yukihito Taguchi via USA TODAY Sports

Can France return to winning ways against a Polish side that has nothing but pride to play for? Read on for our France vs. Poland predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.

Tournament favorites, France, showed they were mortal on Friday as they played out the first goalless draw of Euro 2024 against the impressive Netherlands. France have not won any of their last six games in which Kylian Mbappé didn't start (4 draws, 2 defeats).

Poland’s 3-1 loss to Austria was their fourth consecutive defeat at a major international tournament. It also confirmed their elimination from Euro 2024. There will be no pressure on them when they face the French, who need a victory to keep them in contention for first place in Group D.

France vs. Poland predictions for Tuesday

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France vs. Poland score prediction

France 1 - Poland 0

Despite their excellent squad, France struggle to score. If Mbappe is out of the side, the task is even harder. They do, however, have a solid defensive unit. The team is currently on a run of 367 minutes without conceding a goal, having kept a clean sheet in each of their last four internationals. Poland’s defense allowed nine shots on target on Friday, while their attack tested the goalkeeper just three times. They don’t have the threat in front of goal to cause France any real problems.

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It’s been 42 years since France lost to Poland, with Les Bleus winning four and drawing four of their previous encounters. France created chances against the Netherlands. They have the quality to convert against this Polish defense. The odds imply a 13.3% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $65 if France wins 1-0. 

Best odds: +650 via bet365

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France vs. Poland anytime goal scorer prediction

Antoine Griezmann, France

France will unlikely start Kylian Mbappe, even if he's ready for their group-stage finale. France need their superstar at his best in the knockout phase. Marcus Thuram struggled in front of goal on Friday, and the 37-year-old Olivier Giroud appears to have a limited role in this tournament. Interim captain Antoine Griezmann has been France’s main penalty-taker at previous tournaments and should be handed the responsibility in Mbappe’s absence.

Griezmann scored 24 goals in 48 club appearances for Atletico Madrid this season. He had more shots and touches inside the box than any player in France’s last game against the Netherlands. An appearance against Poland on Tuesday will give him the most of any French player in the national team's history. What better way to celebrate than with a goal? bet365's +188 odds imply a 31.8% probability and a $10 wager pays a profit of $18.80 if Griezmann hits the back of the net.  

Best odds: +188 via bet365

France vs. Poland best bet

France wins and doesn't concede a goal

Poland have only ever won a final group stage match once at the European Championships. That came in 2016, and it was the only time they advanced to the competition's knockout round. The Poles have lost all their other final group-stage matches (3). France haven’t won a final group stage match at a major tournament since the 2006 World Cup, which was in Germany. However, the French need a win to improve their chances of finishing top of Group D.

France’s 14 shots in their last game is their biggest haul without finding the back of the net in a major tournament game since the 2016 final against Portugal (18 shots attempted). Les Bleus are struggling to score, but Poland allowed an average of 1.8 goals per game over their last four matches. The Poles have shipped five goals at this tournament already. The French defense hasn’t conceded a goal in four matches, and their superiority will show as they march to victory. At -110, DraftKings’ odds imply a 52.4% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $9.09 if it hits. 

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings

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France vs. Poland game info

  • When: Tuesday, June 25 (noon ET)
  • Where: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
  • How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
  • Favorite: France (-340 via DraftKings)

France-Poland predictions made Sunday at 2 p.m. ET.

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