Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca Prediction: Today's Leagues Cup Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 11)
Heading into Matchday 3 for the Leagues Cup, Charlotte FC sits atop the MLS table with six points from two games and a +5 goal differential. Things are different for Liga MX's Pachuca, which has failed to record a point and is already eliminated from the tournament. My Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca prediction breaks down the game ahead of kickoff from Bank of America Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV).
Despite the divergent records, Charlotte is only -134 on the three-way moneyline on Tuesday morning, with Pachuca coming in at +290 and the draw a distant third at +320. I like that moneyline, but I have a few ways to get to this one.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
⚽ Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC moneyline | -137 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.55u |
| Rondon 3+ shots | -175 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.43u |
| Charlotte Over 1.5 goals | -150 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.33u |
⚽ Who will win Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca?
It's far from the only game on the docket tonight that has seriously mismatched motivations. Charlotte needs a win to get to the knockouts (likely even a 1-0 does the job, but not for sure) while Pachuca is already eliminated and playing for pride. That motivation will make all the difference.
It's not that Charlotte is a defensive juggernaut, nor is it a hard-pressing, high-possession team. But Pachuca's defensive numbers have been sufficiently poor that a squad like Charlotte can take advantage through box presence and create big chances. Charlotte is also good at creating from set pieces, posting a 0.45 xG/game in the MLS, amongst the league's best numbers.
I think there are enough outcomes that Charlotte wins this by just one goal to shy me away from the handicap, but I'll take the moneyline at a pretty fair price.
Score prediction: Charlotte 2, Pachuca 1
💵 My best bet: Rondon 3+ shots
Just because I think Charlotte comes out on top does not necessarily mean I think that Pachuca will be quiet. With little to worry about in terms of results, the Liga MX side should press forth with less care than normal and Rondon is just the man to take advantage of that.
The Venezuelan forward has averaged 3.18 shots/90 across 12 clubs spanning 19 seasons, and while I wouldn't normally extrapolate data back that far, there's reason to believe it's pretty standard. This year, in a small sample size, he's posted 3.19/90 in Liga MX, and last year, across the full Liga MX season, he logged 3.23/90. He's hit three in each of the two Leagues Cup games so far.
A player that likes to shoot, granted what looks like it should be an opportunity to shoot plenty against a team that doesn't suffocate via possession or play air-tight defense, feels a good fit.
🦶 Who will score in Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca?
Pep Biel, F/AM, Charlotte (+150)
Biel has been held off the scoresheet so far in the Leagues Cup, but its not for lack of trying. The forward has four shots with two on target through the first two games, and while he hasn't produced a particularly high xG from those chances, there is is reason to believe that should change tonight.
First, Pachuca should present a defense that's very gettable: I explained above why I think Charlotte should be able to get through, and I figure they're good for two. Biel leads all scorers on the team with nine in domestic play (four more than Toklomati in second), and he's posting a 0.52 g/90. That's across 17.5 90s spanning 18 starts in 18 games. He scored in both games leading up to the tournament.
So bypass the shorter Toklomati and grab the decent price on Biel to get off the schneid.
Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca goal-scorer pick: Pep Biel (+150)
🥅 Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca?
This is a market I'm staying away from tonight, given a lack of confidence, but when forced to choose I'd back both teams to score.
Pachuca has found the back of the net in both games in the tournament so far, and Charlotte has probably been a little fortunate to post back-to-back clean sheets given they've allowed 2.6 xG (particularly against Atlas, who accounted for 1.7).
The big thing here though is that Pachuca should play a free, open game, with elimination already sorted.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-175 via bet365)
📊 Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca odds
📺 How to watch Charlotte FC vs. Pachuca
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
- TV: Apple TV
Related Articles
