Groundhog Day Prediction & Odds 2026: Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?

Amid a winter season with historic snowstorms across the U.S. and Canada, there is hope around the corner - at least by our 2026 Groundhog Day prediction and odds for whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow on Monday.

Yes, it's that time of year again for the world's most famous celebrity rodent to offer the prognostication of all prognostications for the 40,000 people at Gobbler's Knob and the millions more across North America who wait with bated breath for his final edict.

Ahead of Monday's annual tradition, we're diving into the Groundhog Day history and offering our own prediction for whether the soothsaying ground squirrel will project six more weeks of winter or usher in an early spring.

📜 Groundhog Day history: How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

If you're new to our annual review of Groundhog Day, I have some unfortunate news for you: the world's most famous woodchuck is also its most deceitful.

According to the official record from the Groundhog Club, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 108 of 129 times since the tradition began in 1887 - 10 years of data are missing, including one year Phil simply never showed. He predicted six more weeks of winter last year for the fourth time in five years and 19th time in the last 26 years.

Fortunately for the balance of the natural world, the beguiling land beaver is only right about 35% of the time, according to an NOAA study that ranked Punxsutawney Phil as the least accurate groundhog in America over the last two decades.

An additional study by Stormfax Weather Almanac graded every one of Phil's predictions since 1887 and found him to be accurate just 39% of the time. So you'd be better off flipping a coin than trusting the "seer of seers" when it comes to the weather.

Groundhog Day history & past predictions

See the full Groundhog Club archives for every prediction from 1887-2025.

🦫 Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? Groundhog Day prediction

It's hard to predict what will happen when you pluck a drowsy groundpig from his cozy burrow after a three-month slumber. And, I'll admit, I haven't exactly been the "prognosticator of all prognosticators" when it comes to predicting Phil's behavior.

Indeed, that duplicitous marmot has remained one step ahead of me each of the last two years. In 2024, I predicted that Phil would see his shadow for a fourth consecutive year only for him to shock the crowd at Gobbler's Knob with calls for an early spring.

Then, just when I thought the 138-year-old rodent might finally be developing an optimistic streak, he stared down his shadow to doom us all to another six weeks of winter last February.

So what will he do this year? We're still awaiting the betting odds for the wily woodchuck's next move, but the latest weather forecast for Gobbler's Knob paints a cloudy picture for Phil and his chances of seeing his shadow. The temperature is expected to be in the single digits on Monday morning with a 96% cloud cover when the festivities begin around 7 a.m. ET.

The last time we saw overcast skies on Groundhog Day, our beloved chuck couldn't find his shadow and hence warded off an extended winter. If that logic prevails, I'll finally predict the whims of that weaselly whistle pig. Surely he can't trick me again, right?

Prediction: Punxsutawney Phil will NOT see his shadow (early spring)

🍁 Will Wiarton Willie see his shadow?

While you can't yet bet on whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow, you can wager real Canadian dollars at FanDuel Ontario on whether Wiarton Willie will see his shadow on Monday in the northern edition of the famous groundhog weatherman routine.

Will Wiarton Willie see his shadow?

• Yes -160 (bet $16 to win $10)
• No +100 (bet $10 to win $10)

It's a little curious to see "yes" dealing as such a heavy favorite at -160 after it was priced at +125 ahead of last year's spectacle, when the Canadian clairvoyant did not see his shadow and predicted an early spring for the fifth consecutive time. So why is "no" dealing at +100 odds to cash for a sixth straight year?

Maybe oddsmakers know something we don't about the furry forecaster, whose accuracy has been even worse than his American counterpart with one study by University of Waterloo students projecting his success rate at roughly 32% since the tradition began in 1955. Other estimates have him as low as 25% with Ontario locals advocating for a raccoon prognosticator to take his place.

I don't want to wade into the politics of Canadian weather mammals, but with a 40% chance of snow showers at South Bruce Peninsula on Monday, I'm not sure a woodchuck could check for his shadow even if it tried. With oddsmakers gifting us even odds on a sixth straight call for an early spring, I'm willing to back recent trends once again - even if history tells us to never trust a groundhog.

Prediction: Wiarton Willie will NOT see his shadow (early spring)

❓ 2026 Groundhog Day FAQs

When is Groundhog Day this year?

This year's Groundhog Day is Monday, Feb. 2.

What does it mean if the groundhog sees his shadow?

If the groundhog sees his shadow, that suggests six more weeks of winter.

What does it mean if the groundhog doesn't see his shadow?

If the groundhog doesn't see his shadow, it's meant as a sign that spring will arrive early.

Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow this year?

Since the Groundhog Day tradition began in 1887,  Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 108 of 129 times, including four of the last five years. We predict he will not see his shadow this year after he previously did not see his shadow in 2024.