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NHL Shot Prop Picks, Predictions for Thursday: Sportsbooks Sleeping on Miro Heiskanen

Thursday features the first large slate of NHL games of the season, and it’s the perfect opportunity to pinpoint some juicy odds in the shot-prop markets. Here are our top NHL shot picks for the action.
Neil Parker
Neil Parker

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 3 minute read

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Thursday features the first large slate of NHL games of the season, and it’s the perfect opportunity to pinpoint some juicy odds in the shot-prop markets. Here are our top NHL shot prop picks for Thursday's slate.

The shot-prop markets in the NHL often charge a hefty vig on star players to go Over their total. As such, my strategy has always been to look for high-volume shooters who don’t carry the same name-brand recognition. This way, we can get plus-money odds on players to clear their shot prop lines. 

It’s an approach that doesn’t require as high of a winning percentage to be profitable over the long term, and there are often secondary scorers and defensemen ripe for the plucking in the markets at various sportsbooks. 

Here are our top NHL shot-prop picks for Thursday, Oct. 13 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).

Top NHL Shot Prop Picks for Thursday

Shots1013

Top NHL Shot Prop Picks

Kreider Over 2.5 shots (-104 via FanDuel)

After pacing the New York Rangers with a career-high 258 shots and 412 attempts last season, Chris Kreider's uptick in shot volume continued in the 2022-23 season opener against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He finished with five shots and eight attempts in New York's win.

Add Kreider's role on the No. 1 line and the top power-play unit, and the 31-year-old winger is positioned to have ample opportunities to clear this total. The asking price seals the deal.

Tuch Over 2.5 shots (+110 via Caesars)

This is a prop to pounce on quickly. Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch cleared this total in nine of his final 15 games last season. He also finished the year third in shot attempts per 60 minutes on the team.

While everyone continues to gush over the offseason moves the Ottawa Senators made, I’m hesitant to believe there will be significant on-ice improvement to their possession metrics.

Ottawa allowed the eighth-most shot attempts and seventh-most shots per 60 minutes while ranking 22nd in five-on-five Corsi For percentage when adjusted for score and venue last season.  

Heiskanen Over 2.5 shots (+158 via FanDuel)

Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen is set to take over the quarterback role on the No. 1 power-play unit this season, and an uptick in shot volume should follow. Current Anaheim Ducks rearguard John Klingberg ran the Stars' top unit for the majority of the 2021-22 campaign, and he paced the team in shot attempts per 60 minutes with the man advantage.

The Nashville Predators also surrendered the 12th-most shot attempts per 60 minutes in the league last year. They allowed a healthy 124 attempts and 64 shots through their first two games in Prague against the San Jose Sharks to start the 2022-23 campaign.

I particularly like the long odds here because the sportsbooks haven’t adjusted to Heiskanen’s expanded role. 

Where to Bet on NHL Shot Prop Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

NHL shot prop picks made 10/13/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.