2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Western Conference Matchups & Predictions
The dust has finally settled on the NHL playoff picture as we predict what will transpire in the first round of the Western Conference using the Stanley Cup odds for our Stanley Cup playoffs betting preview.
Our best NHL betting sites have the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers jockeying as the favorites to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. The Dallas Stars, hot on their heels as the third favorite, have been the NHL's best team for over a month and will be looking to extend that blistering pace through postseason.
Here's our Western Conference first-round State of the Union. To further inform your betting decisions, take a look at our one-stop shop Stanley Cup playoffs betting guide and our Eastern Conference betting preview.
Western Conference first-round matchups, odds, predictions
- Vegas Golden Knights (WC2) vs. Dallas Stars (1)
- Colorado Avalanche (C3) vs. Winnipeg Jets (C2)
- Nashville Predators (WC1) vs. Vancouver Canucks (2)
- Los Angeles Kings (P3) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P2)
Golden Knights vs. Stars
The Dallas Stars' otherworldly play has them in pole position to advance, according to our best sports betting apps. The Stars have been the NHL's best team down the stretch. Since Feb. 28, they are 17-4-0, leading the league with a .810 points percentage. Not only are the Stars winning at an astonishing rate, but they have arguably the most well-rounded team entering the postseason. Although the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers would have something to say about that assertion.
Dallas has a solid and wily veteran group that is severely parched and primed to take their first sip from the Stanley Cup. The Golden Knights had their way with the Stars in the regular season, winning all three head-to-head encounters. However, they haven't played since Dec. 9, long before the Stars found their groove.
What the analytics say
| Stars | Golden Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | 9th | 5th |
| Scoring-first win % | 9th | 18th |
| Goals per game | 3rd | 13th |
| Goals against per game | tied 8th | 11th |
| Home points % | tied 7th | tied 7th |
| Away points % | 1st | tied 16th |
| Win % leading after one period | 11th | tied 13th |
| Corsi % | 5th | 21st |
| Power play | 6th | 20th |
| Penalty kill | 8th | 16th |
| Goaltending advantage | X |
Golden Knights vs. Stars series prediction
The Golden Knights have been up and down like a yo-yo since Christmas. Some of that inconsistency is due to injuries. Regardless of the reason, the Golden Knights will run into a supremely confident Stars team that is primed for a deep playoff run. They are 15-4 since defenseman Chris Tanev arrived from the Calgary Flames at the trade deadline and will be ready to inflict some revenge after the Golden Knights beat them in last season's Western Conference Final.
FanDuel offers +158 for a -1.5 Dallas series spread. If you're feeling bold, you can lock in a 4-2 Dallas series win at +490. A $10 winning bet on the -1.5 Dallas spread yields a profit of $15.80 and implies a probability of 38.76%.
Best bet: Stars -1.5 series spread (+158 via FanDuel)
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Avalanche vs. Jets
The Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets series features teams entering the playoffs on opposite trajectories. They also have altogether different strengths, making it one of the most hard-to-predict opening Western Conference series.
Winnipeg has won eight straight games, including a pair against the Dallas Stars and Avalanche by a 10-0 margin. Aside from a meaningless win against Edmonton on April 18, the Avs lost four of their previous five and five of their last seven contests.
The Avalanche have immeasurably more star power, led by Hart Trophy favorite Nathan MacKinnon, Norris Trophy second-favorite Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, who is good to go after returning from concussion protocol. While the Avs have the league's most potent offense, they are fraught with defensive frailties, including between the pipes. Goaltender Alexandar Georgiev has underperformed for most of the season and has played only nine playoff contests.
Pitting him against Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck is like comparing a made-from-scratch, wood-fired gourmet pizza to a frozen, crystallized one from your local grocery store. Hellebuyck, who will almost certainly win his second Vezina Trophy, sits atop numerous statistical categories, including goals saved above expected, where he has 11 more than second-place Thatcher Demko.
The Jets also dominated the Avs in the regular season, winning all three contests, including 7-0 in Colorado when home-ice advantage was at stake.
What the analytics say
| Avalanche | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | 15th | 8th |
| Scoring-first win % | 20th | 1st |
| Goals per game | 1st | 15th |
| Goals against per game | 17th | 2nd |
| Home points % | 1st | 7th |
| Away points % | 12th | 6th |
| Win % leading after one period | 17th | 1st |
| Corsi % | 6th | 13th |
| Power play | 5th | 22nd |
| Penalty kill | 12th | 21st |
| Goaltending advantage | X |
Avalanche vs. Jets series prediction
If it were two weeks ago, I'd suggest taking the Avalanche. However, the Jets are ascending more rapidly and precipitously than an F-14 Tomcat fighter jet. They are much better defensively and between the pipes, as Hellebucyk can steal a series if needed.
Based on the season series, the Jets also have the Avs' number. As long as they can keep MacKinnon relatively in check, the Jets should have enough to pull off the upset.
Best bet: Jets to win the series (+115 via FanDuel)
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Canucks vs. Predators
The Vancouver Canucks are back in the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. They rocketed out of the starting gate like Usain Bolt on uppers but have since slowed to a comparative crawl. While a large portion of the blame can be attributed to Thatcher Demko's long-term injury, the Canucks rot started about a month before their all-star netminder hurt his knee on March 9.
The opposite is true of the Nashville Predators, who've been the NHL's best team since Feb. 16. Between February 16 and March 26, the Preds secured a point in 18 straight games, 16 of which were victories. They've slowed since but were a force more powerful than the full weight of Bruce Wayne's uppercut.
Since Feb. 16, the Canucks have the 17th-best points percentage, taking just 59% of the available points. There is good news from the West Coast, though, as Demko returned to action against Calgary on April 16.
What the analytics say
| Canucks | Predators | |
|---|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | T-10 | 3rd |
| Scoring-first win % | 8th | 9th |
| Goals per game | 6th | 10th |
| Goals against per game | 5th | T-13 |
| Home points % | 4th | T-18 |
| Away points % | 8th | 9th |
| Win % leading after one period | 18th | T-19 |
| Corsi % | 10th | 9th |
| Power play | T-10 | 16th |
| Penalty kill | 20th | T-22 |
| Goaltending advantage | X |
Canucks vs. Predators series prediction
Ring the upset warning alarm. The Preds have an excellent chance of overturning the No. 2 Canucks. The result of this series might be predicated on how Demko performs after more than a month off. Has rust built up, or will he re-enter the crease seamlessly and perform the way he did from October through the end of January, when he was the No. 2 favorite to win the Vezina Trophy?
The Canucks won all three regular-season encounters. However, they haven't played since Dec. 19, long before the Preds found their mojo and the Canucks lost theirs.
Best bet: Predators to win series (+130 via DraftKings)
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Kings vs. Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings meet for the third successive season in the first round, with the former winning both previous encounters. The 2021-22 series went the distance, while the Oilers prevailed in six games in the 2022-23 edition. Expect a similar script for this one. The Oilers won three out of four against the Kings in the regular season.
The only loss, in Los Angeles, occurred almost immediately after the Vegas Golden Knights halted Edmonton's 16-game winning streak. A comedown was expected, nearly assured. That proved to be the case in the Kings' 4-0 Feb. 10 victory. The Kings were the league's second-best team in the first two months but have sputtered since, ranking 19th (tied with the Washington Capitals) in points percentage since Dec. 8.
The Oilers went the other direction, climbing the NHL standings after a woeful opening month or so. Things turned around after the organization fired head coach Jay Woodcroft on Nov. 12. Since that day, and under Kris Knoblauch's tutelage, the Oilers boast the NHL's best points percentage (.703)
What the analytics say
| Oilers | Kings | |
|---|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | 4th | 21st |
| Scoring-first win % | 10th | 19th |
| Goals per game | 4th | T-16 |
| Goals against per game | 10th | 3rd |
| Home points % | 2nd | T-14 |
| Away points % | 11th | 10th |
| Win % leading after one period | T-9 | T-19 |
| Corsi % | 3rd | 4th |
| Power play | 4th | 12th |
| Penalty kill | 15th | 2nd |
| Goaltending advantage | X |
Kings vs. Oilers series prediction
I like the Oilers to advance for a third straight time against the Kings. FanDuel offers a -1.5 game spread at +118, excellent value for the Oilers to wrap it up in six or fewer contests. The Kings have been better recently but struggle mightily in one-goal games, securing victories when netting the opening goal, and securing victories when leading after the first period.
At +118, a winning $10 wager would pay a profit of 11.80 and imply a 45.87% probability.
Best bet: Oilers to win series in 6 games or less (+118 at FanDuel)
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2024 Stanley Cup playoffs betting previews: Round 1
Here is our collection of first-round preview content to get you ready for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs.
- Stanley Cup betting guide
- Stanley Cup playoffs predictions
- NHL playoff upsets
- Eastern Conference betting preview
- Western Conference betting preview
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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