Stanley Cup Odds & Predictions 2025-26: Stanley Cup Expert Picks, Best Long Shot Bet

The NHL regular season starts on Tuesday as I offer my Stanley Cup predictions, featuring a winner, best value bet, and most viable long-shot. 

The NHL picks below analyze the chances of the Vegas Golden Knights returning to prominence, while also headlining a pair of Canadian teams. 

📊 Stanley Cup odds 2025-26

Stanley Cup odds update in real time. See the NHL odds for every game.

🏆 Stanley Cup predictions, expert picks & best bets 

Pick to win Stanley Cup: Golden Knights ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Golden Knights are arguably the deepest, most well-rounded team entering the regular season.

Thanks to winning the Mitch Marner sweepstakes, they've added a top-tier winger who finished last campaign with the fifth-most points (102). He's also excellent in his own end and will improve the Golden Knights' penalty kill, which ranked a disappointing 26th last season.  

Marner will slide onto the league's second-best power play too, offering another weapon alongside Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Tomas Hertl. Marner could even propel Eichel to winning the Rocket Richard Trophy, which our Connor Cooper discussed in his NHL goal leader predictions. 

The perception is that goaltender Adin Hill doesn't meet elite criteria, but his numbers suggest otherwise. He posted the fifth-best save percentage (.906) and the sixth-best saved goals-against average (2.47) for goaltenders with at least 50 starts last season. And he's already won a Stanley Cup.

Head coach Bruce Cassidy's team possesses the aggressiveness and physical prowess required in the postseason, along with finesse players and a defensively sound collective. 

FanDuel is offering the best value among the best sports betting sites, where a winning $10 bet will profit $95. 

Best odds: +950 via FanDuel

Best value bet to win Stanley Cup: Oilers ⭐⭐⭐

I know, I know. We've been here before, and twice actually. I backed the Connor McDavid-led Oilers before the puck dropped on the previous two seasons.

What do they say about fool me twice? How about three times?

While I should probably veer away, I can't help but think the outcome will be different with the Oilers' arch nemesis, the Florida Panthers, carrying on without captain Aleksander Barkov. 

I am, after all, discussing a team that's won the West in consecutive seasons and advanced to the Western Conference final in three of the previous four campaigns.

The Oilers boast the world's best player, the world's best goalscorer in Leon Draisaitl, arguably the world's best offensive defenseman in the playoffs (Evan Bouchard), and they're plastered with more battle scars than every other team can conceive of right now. 

We all know what disclaimer is attached to this prediction: Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending. Can new acquisition Connor Ingram be the savior if, as is likely, Stuart Skinner falters? Probably not. 

There's a secondary disclaimer now, too, which revolves around McDavid's expiring contract. But that's why it's a three-star pick. And if anyone can lift the Holy Grail and clear a massive hurdle, it's the aforementioned captain. If he stays put, that is. 

Best odds: +850 via DraftKings

Best long-shot pick to win Stanley Cup: Senators ⭐⭐

The Senators produced stints when they looked like world beaters last season, and that was without Linus Ullmark ever reaching peak form.

He showed glimpses of his best during the latter stages of the team's first-round playoff defeat to the Toronto Maple Leafs, offering a quintessential case of too little, too late. 

If Ullmark can recapture form that even resembles his Vezina Trophy-winning season, it's worth taking the Sens as a Stanley Cup odds flier. 

Head coach Travis Green steered his team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, and he did it while posting some impressive stats that are often the hallmarks of Stanley Cup contenders. 

The Sens put up the fourth-best point percentage in one-goal games (.629) and the seventh-best when conceding the first goal (.244). They also allowed the eighth-fewest goals per game on the road (2.9), and the team was tied for the best point percentage when scoring the opener (.821). 

I also feel the Eastern Conference is devoid of several upper-echelon teams. The drop after the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers is precipitous, and I'm confident pitting the Senators against any of the other potential contenders, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and New Jersey Devils. 

As long as they don't need to face the Buffalo Sabres, which is a pretty safe assumption. Caesars (+4500) is the outlier as far as the Sens' Stanley Cup odds are concerned, and a winning $10 bet would profit $450. 

Best odds: +4500 via Caesars

❓ Stanley Cup Final FAQs

Who is the Stanley Cup Final favorite?

The Carolina Hurricanes are the 2026 Stanley Cup odds favorites. Their best odds stand at +825, representing an implied win probability of 10.81%, according to our odds converter.

Who won the last Stanley Cup?

The Panthers defeated the Oilers in six games, beating Edmonton for the second straight final. 

When do the NHL playoffs start? 

The playoffs started on Saturday, April 19, 2025 last season. This season's playoffs should start close to that date. 

When does the Stanley Cup Final start?

The 2025 Stanley Cup Final began on Wednesday, June 4 and ended on June 17. 

When was the last back-to-back Stanley Cup winner?

The Florida Panthers won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2024 and 2025. Previously, the Tampa Bay Lightning won it in 2020 and 2021, the Pittsburgh Penguins won it in 2016 and 2017, and the Detroit Red Wings in 1996 and 1997. 

When was the last Stanley Cup three-peat?

The New York Islanders won four Stanley Cups in a row from 1980 to 1983.