2026 Olympic Hockey Odds at Prediction Markets: Will Canada, USA, or Another Nation Win Gold?

The 2026 Olympic hockey odds at prediction markets have Canada and Team USA leading the way, with the probability of either hockey giant taking gold at 74%. 

Canada has a 45% chance, according to the probability at Kalshi, while Team USA has a 29% chance of winning men's Olympic gold for the first time. And remember, this is the first best-on-best Olympic tournament in 12 years, ratcheting the excitement level to an unparalleled level. 

🥇 2026 Olympic men's hockey gold medal odds

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The majority of those trading at Kalshi are backing Team Canada to win gold at the men's Olympic hockey tournament, with the Great White North's probability of winning at 45%.

The market at Kalshi only opened on Jan. 30, and it will be interesting to see how things unfold in the lead-up to the tournament. Both teams saw their probabilities peak right after it opened, with Canada at 57% and Team USA at 44.8%.

While Sidney Crosby and Co. are the clear front-runners to win the tournament, Team USA has a 29% chance. Sweden is the third-most likely team to snatch gold, with a 13% probability. 

Rounding out the top five favorites are Finland (8%) and Czechia (5%). While 12 countries are participating in the Milano Cortina Games, no team beyond the five favorites has a probability greater than 1%. 

Thus far, there has only been $13,468 in trading volume. Expect that to increase substantially as the event nears. 

🏆 Best Olympic hockey pick: Canada 

Four of the NHL's top 10 scorers will don the Canadian maple leaf, including the three top dawgs. Only Nikita Kucherov, who won't be participating at the Olympics due to Russia's ban, stands in the way of a Canadian sweep atop the NHL scoring leaderboard. 

Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini offer a three-headed threat that no other country can compete with. Those three megastars sit on top of the Hart Trophy odds leaderboard with a third of the NHL season remaining. 

No American is among the top 10, with Jason Robertson - who was snubbed by Bill Guerin and Co. - the top American in 11th. 

Canada's winning pedigree outshines Team USA 

The Olympics often come down to one moment, and I'd much rather put my hard-earned cash on a team with more winners. 

With all but eight of its players having previously won the Stanley Cup, Canada has the decisive advantage. If I were writing about a game of Horseshoes, I'd include Connor McDavid. 

Team USA, meanwhile, has only four Stanley Cup winners: Matthew Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel, Jack Eichel, and Seth Jones. 

What about Team USA's goaltending advantage?

Before the NHL season, Team USA had the marked advantage between the pipes. However, reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck has struggled, while Canadian Logan Thompson is the third-most likely to win the Vezina, according to the Vezina Trophy odds. 

Presumed Team USA starter Hellebuyck is actually the least likely of the three American netminders to win the Vezina Trophy, with Jeremy Swayman in the top five and Jake Oettinger among the top 10. 

One of the main talking points coming out of Team Canada's camp is whether head coach Jon Cooper will give Jordan Binnington the benefit of the doubt, considering how poorly the St. Louis Blues' No. 1 has played this season. Either way, Team USA's once clear advantage between the pipes has become slightly murkier. 

📊 Olympic hockey odds 2026

Here are the Olympic hockey odds from Kalshi's prediction market. 

🔢 How many Olympic hockey teams have realistic chance of winning gold? 

Does 5% constitute realistic in your book? 

While Czechia's implied probability doesn't seem feasible, the outsider among the five favorites represents a decent long-shot pick. And despite their 1-in-20 chance of winning, I'm tossing them into the realistic pot.

So, that makes five teams - Canada, Team USA, Sweden, Finland, Czechia - with a "realistic" shot of winning Olympic gold. 

If the Americans have any design on winning the most gold medals in Milano-Cortina, ascending to the top of the hockey world will help. The Olympic men's hockey odds of those outside the top five offer about as much hope as Sweden's Philip Broberg has of leading the tournament in scoring.  

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.

For example, if you select Canada to win, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 45 cents, which implies a 45% chance.

If they win the competition, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 55 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0.

Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.

Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on the Olympic hockey winner at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.