Finland vs. Sweden Prediction & Best Bets: Olympic Men's Hockey Preview

Arguably, hockey's biggest rivals will go toe to toe early on Friday morning (6:10 a.m. ET, Peacock), and I expect goals to be at a premium in my Finland vs. Sweden prediction, picks and odds. 

Sweden is the -184 monelyine betting favorite for the contest. While I'm backing a monstrous outing from Finland, I'm focusing more on the total, predicting five goals or fewer. Hopefully, Sweden's goaltender change will help cash this bet. I'm highlighting Miro Heiskanen as my featured player prop. 

🏒 Finland vs. Sweden prediction: Olympic men's hockey

Our expert Olympic hockey picks are based on the latest betting odds at the best sports betting sites.

💰 Finland vs. Sweden best bet: Under 5.5 (-134)

With so much on the line between fierce rivals, time and space will be at a premium. The only thing that will push this game over the 5.5-goal total is if either team scores a power-play goal or two.

Tight checking will be the name of the game, and Sweden will pivot in goal, opting to start with Jacob Markstrom after Filip Gustavsson's shaky first period against Italy. Hopefully, that will eradicate the chance of soft goals.  

While both teams have high-end offensive players, Finland's goal-scoring prowess drops significantly beyond the second line. Sweden has more playmakers than goal scorers, and both teams are sound defensively.  

Score prediction: Finland 3, Sweden 2 

🔥 Best Finland vs. Sweden prop bet: Miro Heiskanen Over 0.5 points (-102)

Miro Heiskanen to score at least one point at -102 is one of the better value bets you'll find for this game. Not only does he play a ton of minutes and quarterback the power play, but he had seven points in six games the last time he suited up for Finland in a major tournament (2022 World Championships).

Heiskanen has 46 points in 55 games for the Dallas Stars. He has the longest odds to score at least one point of any skater at FanDuel. I'd make this play to -110. 

🥅 Who will start in goal for Finland vs. Sweden?

With Gustavsson enduring a tough start against Italy, Sweden will go with Markstrom for the pivotal contest against the Nordic foes. The starting job will now be Markstrom's to lose. 

In the 2025 World Championships, Markstrom had a subpar 0.894 save percentage in six games. 

While there haven't been any decisions made for Finland, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joonas Korpisalo get the nod, something I forecasted in my Olympic hockey odds and tournament predictions, after Juuse Saros struggled against Slovakia.

📺 How to watch Finland vs. Sweden

• Date: Friday, Feb. 13
• Puck drop: 6:10 a.m ET
• Location: Santagiulia Arena (Milan, Italy)
• TV: Peacock