NFL Survivor Picks Week 5: The 12s Will Shake Jones to His Core at Lumen Field
After using our mulligan in Week 3 - who could have known Andy Dalton would play at the level of an NFL MVP odds contender - we properly survived in Week 4 by riding with the Houston Texans against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and it was a sweaty one. Let's get an easy win this week.
- We continue to target some of the better teams in the NFL after opting for teams with lower NFL projected win totals during the first three weeks
- There are a handful of teams I'm willing to ride with this week, but one of the most rocking stadiums is the home of the game we're zeroing in on
- Daniel Jones hasn't been particularly effective this season, and now he heads to Lumen Field, where "The 12s" will be sure to give him a warm welcome
- Jones could be without top wideout and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender Malik Nabers
- Can the Seattle Seahawks bounce back following a tough road loss on Monday night?
Teams used:
- Week 1: New Orleans Saints (vs. Panthers) ✅
- Week 2: Los Angeles Chargers (at Panthers) ✅
- Week 3: Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Panthers) 🙅
- Week 4: Houston Texans (vs. Jaguars) ✅
- Week 5: Seattle Seahawks (vs. Giants) 👀
Be sure to check out all of our NFL Week 5 predictions ahead of the action!
Week 5 survivor picks: Rankings
(NFL odds for Week 5 via bet365 as of Oct. 1. Rankings from most to least confident.)
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Seahawks | vs. Giants | -270 | 72.97% |
| 2. 49ers | vs. Cardinals | -360 | 78.26% |
| 3. Chiefs | vs. Saints | -245 | 71.01% |
| 4. Vikings | vs. Jets | -140 | 58.33% |
| 5. Commanders | vs. Browns | -170 | 62.96% |
| 6. Ravens | at Bengals | -150 | 60% |
| 7. Patriots | vs. Dolphins | -110 | 52.38% |
| 8. Jaguars | vs. Colts | -150 | 60% |
| 9. Broncos | vs. Raiders | -150 | 60% |
| 10. Bears | vs. Panthers | -200 | 66.67% |
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Who I'm picking: Seahawks (vs. Giants)
The Seahawks lost their first game of the season in Week 4 at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions, but they gave fans plenty to get excited about.
Geno Smith once again looked great, throwing for 395 yards, and his interception was a desperation pass to the end zone late in the game.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III returned from an injury to run wild on the Lions. He racked up 80 yards on 12 carries, adding four receptions for 36 more yards. Oh, and he also scored three touchdowns.
Now, the Seahawks return home to one of the most raucous environments in the NFL. They'll host the lowly Giants, who lost at home in Week 4 despite getting 115 receiving yards from Nabers. The rookie suffered a concussion late in that game, and his status for this week is questionable.
If Jones is without his top target in Week 5, the Seahawks' defense will feast. Even with Nabers, the Giants don't possess the necessary tools to do what the Lions just did to Seattle.
We could see Seattle's moneyline odds shorten to -300 or more, and they're already the second-biggest favorites this week at most of our best sports betting sites.
See all of our NFL picks for Week 5 for more help with your survivor picks. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Who I'm fading: Bills (at Texans)
I'm fading both teams in this tightly contested matchup between Super Bowl odds contenders.
As you can see by the fact that the Bills are barely favorites (around -115 to the Texans' +100 at our best sports betting apps), this is just too close to call. We used the Texans last week, so our only option for the purpose of this article would have been Buffalo. However, I wouldn't take either team if I had the choice.
Additionally, neither team looked particularly good in Week 4, so I have no idea what to expect.
The Bills were spanked by the Baltimore Ravens and the Texans barely squeaked by the Jaguars (nearly costing us our survival).
Leave these two teams be in Week 5 and just tune in for what should hopefully be an entertaining game during the 1 p.m. ET window.
NFL betting odds pages
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