NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 12
A week after favorites flexed their muscles, the underdogs look to wreak havoc in Week 12. We're back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 12 action.
Week 11 was uneventful for outright underdog upsets, as favorites went 11-3. The biggest upset was the Tennessee Titans beating the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night, when the latter was the eighth-biggest favorite on the board.
There was still some drama, as the Philadelphia Eagles avoided losing as -295 moneyline favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. The Eagles outscored the Colts 14-3 in the fourth quarter, with Jalen Hurts scoring on a game-winning seven-yard touchdown run with 1:20 remaining to eke out the victory.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 12 (odds DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).
Check out the odds and lines for Week 12 and our against the spread picks power rankings.
NFL Upset Picks for Week 12
NFL Week 12 Underdog Predictions
Titans (+110) vs. Bengals
Mike Vrabel has gone no worse than 9-7 in his first four full seasons as head coach of the Tennessee Titans, exceeding his projected win total every year, according to Warren Sharp. Additionally, the Titans have won the most games outright as an underdog (22), and no team boasts a higher winning percentage (56.4%) as a dog during that span.
Tennessee has put together the longest active cover streak in the NFL at eight games, joining the 2021 Packers, 2020 Bills, 2018 Saints, 2016 Cowboys, and 2015 Vikings as the only squads to cover during eight consecutive contests over the last 10 years.
With their Week 11 outright win as underdogs over Green Bay, the Titans improved to 24-14 against the spread as an underdog under Vrabel. Also, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is now 4-0 straight up and ATS in the game after victories in 2022. Tannehill has won his last six games as a starter, and the Titans are looking for revenge against a Bengals team that beat them 19-16 in the divisional round this past January.
Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.
Bears (+188) vs. Jets
Chicago has allowed 35.5 points per game during a four-game losing streak. However, those taking the glass-half-full approach would note the Bears have suffered three straight narrow losses by three points or fewer, so regression has to be coming soon. It could come this week against a Jets team that posted the fewest total yards (103) in a game this season in Week 11,
The Jets recorded only six first downs against the New England Patriots and nine completions, leading to 10 punts. Their running backs ran 19 times for just 33 yards. New York punted on all seven of its second-half possessions (two total yards in the half). Chicago is facing an excellent opportunity to get right defensively against the struggling Zach Wilson.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields tied Kyler Murray for the longest streak during the Super Bowl era after posting five consecutive games with a touchdown pass and a scoring run. He's dealing with a left shoulder injury, so only make this play if the dynamic signal-caller is healthy enough to start. However, New York is also working through its own quarterback issue, with the team not fully committed to Zach Wilson.
Panthers (+120) vs. Broncos
Motivation can play a massive role in the Broncos-Panthers matchup. Though their 3-7 and 3-8 records are nearly identical, Denver's chances of making the playoffs are slim at best (0.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight). But Carolina holds a 3% chance of winning its division while just 2.5 games out. Denver's Nathaniel Hackett may also be a lame-duck head coach at this point, while Carolina should continue to play hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks.
It will be interesting to see what Wilks decides to do with his quarterback situation after Baker Mayfield led the team to three points in Week 11. Even if Sam Darnold makes his first start, he's easier to trust than Russell Wilson, who has logged one passing touchdown or fewer in eight of nine starts.
Denver has lost six of seven games, while Carolina is a respectable 3-3 at home. This is absolutely a game the Panthers can win.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 12 upset picks made 11/22/2022 at 5:39 a.m. ET.
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