NFL Upset Picks Week 17: Building Off Last Week's +1062 Cash

My NFL upset picks hit on three plays last week, which cashed a three-leg moneyline parlay at +1062 odds, and ensured a profitable season with these underdog picks.

My NFL Week 17 predictions include my favorite upset pick, best value pick, and top long-shot underdog.

🏈 NFL Week 17 upset rankings

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 17

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.

Raiders (-105) over Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The loser of this game takes over as the team projected to pick first in next year’s draft, so it will be curious to see what kind of motivation there is on either side. But the Raiders looked less like the team riding out the season in holding a fourth-quarter lead in Houston last week, while the Giants conservatively ran the ball on their first 16 plays in a loss.

One of these teams will end a nine-game losing streak, but I am banking on it being the Raiders. Ashton Jeanty turned 25 touches into 188 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, and faces a Giants defense that entered last week allowing a league-high in yards per carry, yards before contact, and explosive run rate since Week 11.

I am backing the -105 price and 51.22% implied odds at BetMGM before the line jumps the fence and the Raiders kick off as favorites across the market.

Eagles over Bills (+118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo will gladly take the road win over Cleveland last week to keep alive the slim hope of winning the AFC East. But the Bills allowed the Browns to rush for 160 yards, their highest total since 2023, which could be a death sentence when facing Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts.

Philadelphia clinched the NFC East last week and is realistically only playing for a chance to move up to the No. 2 seed in the conference over the next two weeks. But Buffalo’s defense sits 28th in third-down percentage allowed, and should have difficulty getting off the field after allowing Cleveland to convert eight of its 14 third-down attempts.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +115. A $10 wager would net $11.80 in profit if Philadelphia becomes just the second team to win in Buffalo in the Bills’ last 18 home games.

Browns over Steelers (+180) ⭐⭐

After Baltimore lost to New England on Sunday night, Pittsburgh is in position to clinch the AFC North with one win in its final two games. But the Steelers could also have the division wrapped up before this game is played, as long as Baltimore loses to Green Bay on Saturday. 

If Pittsburgh has the division sewn up before kickoff, it will be interesting to see what head coach Mike Tomlin does in terms of getting some starters much needed rest prior to the playoff grind.

Even if Pittsburgh hasn’t clinched, Cleveland still showed it is capable of an upset after battling the Bills for four quarters and having two chances late to pull the upset over an AFC contender.

There is a decent gap between the +180 odds offered at DraftKings and the +170 odds on the low end of the market.

🚀 NFL Week 17 upset parlay