NFL Upset Picks Week 9: Ranking Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

My NFL upset picks for Week 9 look to recover, as last week was historically bad for underdogs.

Favorites went 11-2 ATS (84.6%), their best winning percentage in a single week since 1985. While all 11 favorites covered by at least seven points, my NFL picks expect more ‘dogs to bark as part of the NFL predictions for Week 9. I'm featuring an underdog coming off an embarrassing home loss, a six-win team dealing with a key injury, and an upset pick in one of the week’s prime-time games.

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🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 9 upset predictions

NFL upset picks for Week 9; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 9

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Broncos (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Texans are getting hot, winning three of their last four after an 0-3 start. And quarterback C.J. Stroud just turned in his ninth career 300-yard passing game, his first in 20 games.

I’d feel a lot more confident if Denver’s defense weren't without cornerback Patrick Surtain, expected to miss multiple games with a left pectoral strain. But it is still a unit that leads the league in QBR, completion percentage, sacks, and third-down conversion rate.

Even without Surtain for much of the game, the Broncos held a high-powered Cowboys offense to season lows in yards per play (5.0) and time of possession (26:28).

Meanwhile, Bo Nix, who is among the most clutch QBs, has accounted for eight total touchdowns in the last five quarters, with Denver scoring 77 points.

Several of the best sports betting sites offer slightly better value at +105 odds (carrying a 48.78% implied probability) than the +100 odds at the low end of the market. Through BetMGM’s +105 odds, a $10 wager would net $10.50 in profits if Denver pulls the upset.

📊 Live Broncos vs. Texans odds

🎯 Bengals (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

The New York Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals for their first win last week after outscoring them 23-7 in the fourth quarter. It was New York’s second win in franchise history when trailing by 15-plus points entering the fourth quarter.

While that loss stings, Cincinnati benefits from playing a second straight home game against a Bears team that is on the road for a second successive week.

Chicago had a four-game winning streak snapped against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, as Baltimore allowed a season-low 16 points. Chicago seems heavily reliant on takeaways, with its winning streak spurred by a league-high 16.

There is a sizable difference between Cincinnati’s +130 odds at DraftKings and its +120 odds at the opposite end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $13 in profits compared to the $12 through the shortest odds. 

📊 Live Bears vs. Bengals odds

🎯 Cardinals (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

I have real concerns about a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed 30 or more points five times this season, a league-worst. It also just allowed 44 points to Denver, the Broncos’ most in a game since 2018.

Each of Arizona’s five losses has been by four or fewer points. With a week off to prepare and with Dallas’ offensive line coming off a season-worst 41% Pass Block Win Rate, I am backing the Cardinals to end their losing skid. 

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering better than +125. If Arizona ends its five-game losing skid, my $10 winning wager would return $13 in profits.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Cowboys odds

💰 Best NFL Week 9 underdog parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

• Broncos vs. Texans: Broncos +105
• Bears vs. Bengals: Bengals +130
• Cardinals vs. Dolphins: Cardinals +130

Parlay odds: +984 via FanDuel ($98.45 profit on a winning $10 bet)