NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Wild Card Weekend: NFC Teams are Upset Prone

Top NFL upset picks, and predictions for Wild Card Weekend, back Tom Brady at home in the postseason.

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 10, 2023 8:02 AM EST • 4 minute read

Wild Card Weekend features two games with double-digit point spreads and two home underdogs. Here are our Wild Card Round upset picks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently one-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they have seen all the support since opening at +2.5. The other AFC matchups feature big favorites taking on teams with unknown quarterback situations. Neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Lamar Jackson have been ruled in or out this weekend.

In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys are road favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the New York Giants are just three-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. In the third game, the San Francisco 49ers are 10-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Wild Card Weekend (odds via [FanDuel and Caesars sportsbooks]; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+126 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Dallas Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐
New York Giants (+140 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Minnesota Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Seattle Seahawks (+425 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. San Francisco 49ers ⭐⭐

NFL Upset Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+126) ⭐⭐⭐

The Buccaneers have the worst record of any team in the postseason, yet they have a very good opportunity to pull an upset on Monday night. They get to host the 12-5 Cowboys who have lost two of their last three games on the road, including a 26-6 beatdown at the hands of Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders in Week 18. Four of the Cowboys' five losses this year have come on the road, while the Bucs are 5-4 at home this season.

The Bucs have Tom Brady under center, and for as disappointing as the Bucs were this season, Brady’s 4,694 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions were a bright spot for the team. He is playing much better football than Dak Prescott is, and if it comes down to quarterback play, then Brady, who is 24-8 at home in the playoffs, gives the Bucs a huge upper hand.

New York Giants (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As with many teams this year, the Giants came so close to taking down Minnesota the first time they played, but ultimately couldn’t get over the hump. Now, they will get a second crack at the Vikings, and teams who have had two chances to beat Minnesota have faired well in their second meeting. Both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers won by double-digits over Minnesota after losing in their first game.

After a tough stretch in which the Giants gave up 28 or more points in three of four games, the defense has settled and held every opponent since Week 15 to 27 or fewer. While the Giants’ wide receiving corps is probably the worst in the playoffs, they will find holes against the depleted Vikings’ secondary, and Saquon Barkley will be able to run the clock out on the Vikings’ season.

Seattle Seahawks (+425) ⭐⭐

Many are picking the 49ers to win the Super Bowl, and while Brock Purdy has yet to lose a football game as a starter, out of the other four matchups, the Seattle Seahawks have the best chance of pulling an upset.

The 49ers are 2-0 against the Seahawks this season, and when these two teams met back in Week 15, the 49ers won 21-13 in Seattle. While they led comfortably for that entire game, the 49ers’ offense did struggle to finish drives against the Seahawks’ defense.

If the Seahawks’ defense can do its part against the 49ers, then it will come down to the Seattle offense against the 49ers’ stout defense. San Francisco still has an advantage in this situation, but the Seahawks do have a multi-faceted attack that could help them mount an early lead. If they can get up in this game, then they can use Kenneth Walker III’s rushing ability to drag this game out and keep the ball away from San Francisco.

One sportsbook note. PointsBet is offering this line at +350, which is much lower than the other books. However, this could signal that this number is going to drop as the week progresses.

NFL upset picks made 01/10/2023 at 11:25 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.