NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 14: Can Malik Davis Cap Off Cowboys Blowout?
The Dallas Cowboys are -17.5 favorites over the Houston Texans on Sunday, and backup running back Malik Davis could see an expanded role with the game in hand. His long odds stand out among our top NFL touchdown-scorer prop picks for Week 14.
Betting touchdown props is an entertaining way to fill out your weekly NFL betting portfolio. There’s also plenty of value to be found by shopping for the best odds across our top-rated sportsbooks.
Here are our Week 14 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our best bets and top picks for every NFL Week 14 game.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
- Isiah Pacheco anytime TD scorer (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Mark Andrews anytime TD scorer (+190 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- DJ Chark anytime TD scorer (+265 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Isiah Pacheco anytime TD (+135) ⭐⭐⭐
The Kansas City Chiefs running back found the end zone for a second consecutive game in Week 13, and Pacheco’s odds via Caesars to make it three straight are actually higher than the best number available last week.
While Pacheco ceded five red-zone carries to backfield mate Jerick MacKinnon against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, MacKinnon didn’t convert either of his rushes from inside the five-yard line into a touchdown. I expect Pacheco to return to handling the majority of touches near the goal line against the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
The inflated odds for Pacheco’s touchdown prop align with Denver allowing just five touchdowns to opposing running backs. However, the Broncos have lost four consecutive games to drop to 3-9, and they’ve also faced the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA per Football Outsiders.
With Kansas City pacing the NFL in points per game, EPA per play, offensive DVOA and offense grade per Pro Football Focus, I’m expecting the Chiefs to put points on the board – and Pacheco to have multiple opportunities to find paydirt.
Mark Andrews anytime TD (+190) ⭐⭐⭐
I view the jump in odds for Andrews to score a touchdown this week as an overreaction to the Baltimore Ravens quarterback change. Last week, the two-time Pro Bowl tight end was trading as low as -115 via BetMGM to find the end zone with Lamar Jackson starting.
Even with the Pittsburgh Steelers checking out as a difficult matchup, I still see incredible value based on the increased odds. Andrews is a matchup nightmare in his own right, after all. He ranks second among tight ends in effective yards and has the sixth-highest receiving grade per PFF among tight ends with at least 50 targets.
Additionally, Ravens backup quarterback Tyler Huntley has been with the team for three seasons, and this will be his fifth career start. Andrews has caught 32 of 44 targets for 383 yards and two touchdowns across Huntley's four starts. Andrews’ 8.7 yards per target across those four games is higher than the 7.6 mark he posted through his first 10 contests this season with Jackson was behind center, too.
DJ Chark anytime TD (+265) ⭐⭐
The Minnesota Vikings-Detroit Lions game has one of the highest Over/Under totals this week at 51.5. Chark has seen an increased role in the passing attack the past two games, securing seven of 11 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown.
I’m also encouraged by the matchup. The Vikings rank sixth-worst in pass defense DVOA the past four weeks, and 22nd in coverage grade for the season per PFF. I also envision the Minnesota defense having its hands full with Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, which should leave softer matchups for Chark.
In particular, the 6-foot-4 Chark has a size advantage over the entire Vikings secondary, and especially 5-foot-11 cornerback Chandon Sullivan. Sullivan also ranks 138th in coverage grade among cornerbacks per PFF, so it’s an exploitable matchup if Chalk lines up opposite Sullivan.
The odds available through DraftKings are also considerably better than the +180 via PointsBet.
Last TD Scorer Pick
- Malik Davis last TD scorer (+3500 via PointsBet) ⭐
Malik Davis last TD scorer (+3500) ⭐
The Cowboys have been bet up to a -17.5 favorite, and if Big D does indeed pull away from the Texans, I expect Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy to rest his starters in the second half Sunday.
As a result, Davis could see an increased role out of the backfield. His first career touchdown was also the final score of last week’s 54-19 win over the Indianapolis Colts, and 18 of his 22 carries this season have been in the second half.
It’s also a cushy matchup for the Dallas ground game. The Texans have allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs through 12 games, and Houston ranks fifth-last in rush defense DVOA and fourth-lowest in run defense grade per PFF.
I’d also recommend betting the pre-built parlay of Davis scoring an anytime touchdown and Dallas winning at +1050 through PointsBet. The odds are long for both bets, and it’d be an all-time bad beat if Davis found the end zone, and then the Cowboys added a TD for good measure.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 14 NFL touchdown prop picks made 12/9/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
