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NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 14

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 9, 2022 4:39 AM EST • 3 min 22 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Five weeks remain until the end of the regular season as teams gear up to make their final playoff pushes. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 14.

Of the 12 remaining games on the Week 14 slate, seven have point spreads of four or fewer points, suggesting we are in for a slew of competitive matchups.

The Under has cashed in 11 of the Denver Broncos' 12 games, and the Kansas City Chiefs have beaten them 13 consecutive times. Will those trends continue?

Here are our best bets for Week 14’s NFL slate (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Week 14 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Week 14 NFL Best Bets

  • Spread: Jets +10 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Total: Vikings-Lions Over 51.5 (-110 via Caesars)
  • Upset: Cardinals (+120 via DraftKings)
  • Prop bet: Saquon Barkley Over 21.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)

NFL Top Picks for Week 14

Spread: Jets +10 (-107) ★★★★

The Jets have already beaten Buffalo as +10.5 point underdogs this season with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Now they have Mike White under center, who has rejuvenated New York's passing game with 342 yards per game and three touchdowns in two starts. The Jets were on their way to an upset of Minnesota, outgaining the Vikings 486-287. However, New York was undone by scoring just one touchdown in six red-zone possessions, something that we expect to regress going forward.

Given his prior IR designation, Von Miller was always destined to miss this game, but it can't be overstated what he meant to the Bills' defense. Miller's 38 pressures are tied for the seventh-most in the league, and his 14.6% pressure rate ranks fourth. Greg Rousseau's 17 pressures and Ed Oliver's 12 pale in comparison to what Miller was able to produce, which should make White feel comfortable in the pocket in this road contest.

All sportsbooks have reached +10 from an opening number of +9.5, but we’re making this wager at PointsBet to take advantage of the slightly better juice (-107 compared to -110 at others).

Total: Vikings-Lions Over 51.5 (-110) ★★★★

Detroit is coming off a game in which it scored on all eight possessions (excluding kneel-downs) against Jacksonville and now faces a Minnesota defense that allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to the Jets. Detroit will likely follow New York's blueprint from last week, dropping back to pass 57 times and carving up an aging secondary. Thus, a fifth game in which the Lions score 35-plus points is not out of the question.

Minnesota ran for 4.9 yards per carry in the first game. The Vikings are a versatile offense that scored 27 points last week despite Justin Jefferson being held to 45 yards. That was only the second time in the previous nine games he totaled fewer than 98 receiving yards. But Detroit's top two cornerbacks are not nearly as talented as New York's D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner, so we expect a big bounce-back from arguably the best wide receiver in the game.

Caesars is the place to go for Over backers, as it is the only sportsbook offering 51.5, with all others at 52 or 52.5.

Upset: Cardinals (+120) ★★★

New England and Arizona are coming off consecutive losses, but the Cardinals enjoy a slight scheduling advantage coming off a bye week, while the Patriots last played on Thursday night. The Patriots' loss to Buffalo was concerning because Mac Jones let pent-up frustration get the best of him, as he questioned the team's conservative play-calling. On top of that, New England finished the game ranked 31st in red-zone scoring, 25th in third-down conversions, and 27th in first downs gained per game.

Arizona is just 1-6 at home this year but is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight-up loss, and Kliff Kingsbury is 23-12-1 as an underdog with the Cardinals, including 11 covers in 15 such games since the start of last season.

DraftKings offers as much as $15 more in value for Cardinals Moneyline backers, as Arizona is as low as +105 at BetMGM and Caesars.

Prop pick: Barkley Over 21.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★

Barkley is coming off his 30th career game with 65 or fewer rushing yards, and the Giants are 3-26-1 in those games. Head coach Brian Daboll knows he needs to get Barkley going. Still, Philadelphia has held opponents to 3.8 yards per rush since Week 10 (eighth-best), and its depth on the defensive line with signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh makes running between the tackles difficult.

Philadelphia boasts arguably the best cornerback duo in the game in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. So while those two are busy locking up New York's receivers on the outside, look for Daniel Jones to dump the ball off to Barkley more, especially with a negative game script likely.

All sportsbooks are currently at O/U 21.5 yards for this prop, but be sure to look for the best number as we get closer to kickoff.

Where to Bet on the NFL

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NFL Week 14 best bets made on 12/9/22 at 6:30 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.