Browns vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 14: Will Cincinnati Continue ATS Success?

This AFC North matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will be a chance for the Bengals to snap a five-game losing streak to the Browns. Read on for our Browns-Bengals NFL pick based on the top odds.

The Browns had a different look in last week’s win against Houston, as Deshaun Watson started his first game at quarterback (and first with his new team) since Jan. 3, 2021. Cleveland scored touchdowns via an interception return, fumble return, and punt return in its 27-14 victory, and it was its first time winning back-to-back games all season.

The Bengals have won eight of 10 games since starting the season 0-2. Cincinnati’s four-game winning streak is its longest since 2017-18, and its 8-4 start is the franchise’s best since 2015. With last week’s win over Kansas City, Joe Burrow became the first quarterback to win three straight games against Patrick Mahomes and snapped the Chiefs’ 26-game November/December winning streak in the process.

Here is our best NFL pick for the Week 14 matchup between the Browns and Bengals (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Browns vs. Bengals Game Info

Date: Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 46 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 8-mph WNW wind

Browns vs. Bengals Odds

Browns vs. Bengals Odds Analysis

Cincinnati opened as a -4.5 home favorite but has been bet to -5.5, as 84% of the bets and 78% of the cash has landed on its side.

The Over/Under saw one of the biggest moves of any total in the Week 14 slate. The total opened at 49.5 and is down as low as 46.5. I believe there will be late money on the Over and that the total will close at 47.5.

Browns vs. Bengals Pick

Browns +5.5 ★★★

Despite Cleveland having won five consecutive games in this rivalry, the Browns are a heavy contrarian pick as the Bengals are riding high off a win against Kansas City.

To say Watson was rusty last week was an understatement, as he turned in the worst QBR (28.5) of his career. Watson’s minus-17.0 completion percentage over expectation was his worst in a single game in his career and was the fourth-worst by any quarterback this season with a minimum of 20 attempts (per Next Gen Stats).

However, even if Watson is not in midseason form, he can always hand off to Nick Chubb, who still torched the Bengals for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting, despite his 4.4 yards per carry being his second-lowest output of the season. In addition, Cleveland had the fifth-best EPA per drive when Jacoby Brissett was under center, so a rusty Watson is being handed the keys to an efficient offense.

Joe Burrow averages 8.6 air yards per attempt versus man coverage (10th-highest) but 5.7 against zone (second-lowest). Thus, he could be in for struggles against a Browns defense that finished Week 12 playing man coverage at the 24th-lowest rate in the league.

Burrow is 17-3 against the spread in his last 20 games, and the Bengals are the most profitable team (23-10 ATS) - including playoff games - over the previous two seasons. However, oddsmakers will make the adjustments on Cincinnati, and this is a good time to fade it, considering Kevin Stefanski’s teams are 11-8-1 ATS as underdogs. 

Browns vs. Bengals Best Odds

PointsBet +5.5 (-107)

With all major sportsbooks offering the same +5.5 spread, we head to PointsBet for this wager solely to save some money on the -107 juice. Offering juice of -107 is often a way that PointsBet entices customers, but they do not always have the best number, so bettors should be sure to compare their lines against the other sportsbooks out there.

Where to Bet on Browns-Bengals Picks

Best NFL Betting Sites:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

Browns-Bengals picks made 12/9/2022 at 6:21 a.m. ET.