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Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Oct. 16.
Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Oct. 16. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Tennessee Titans will be hoping to take the next step towards clinching the AFC South division title when they play the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Read on for our Jaguars-Titans picks.

The Jaguars allowed a season-high 40 points to Detroit last week, which resulted in their 20th consecutive loss against NFC opponents. Jacksonville has been a miserable road team for quite some time, as it has lost 22 of its last 23 away from home, including four straight. 

Tennessee’s 35-10 road loss to Philadelphia dropped its record to 1-5 against teams currently over .500. The Titans have now lost back-to-back games for the first time since starting 0-2, and the 25-point loss was their worst since a 34-point road loss at Buffalo in Week 2. The Titans have won eight straight games at Nissan Stadium against the Jaguars. 

Here is our best Jaguars vs. Titans NFL pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Jaguars vs. Titans Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 11, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • Weather: 55 degrees, 15% chance of precipitation, 5-mph N wind

Jaguars vs. Titans Odds

Jaguars vs. Titans Odds Analysis

Tennessee opened as 3.5-point home favorites and the spread has remained there all week at some sportsbooks, with others going to -4. Sharp action is on the underdog Jaguars, who have received just 15% of the tickets but 64% of the cash.

The total has seen slightly more movement than the point spread, dropping from an opening number of 42 to as low as 40.5. The biggest wagers have backed the Under, as it has drawn 41% of the tickets and 75% of the cash.

Jaguars vs. Titans Pick

Under 41.5 ★★★

The Jaguars have allowed 400-plus total yards for the third consecutive game, but that weakness does not project to be exploited by the Titans, who rank tied for 30th with 291.3 yards per game.

Titans running back Derrick Henry is coming off a game where he saw just 11 carries, and none went for longer than six yards. Even before struggling against Philadelphia, Henry averaged 1.7 yards before contact per rush (second-lowest in the NFL). Thus, most of his yardage came after contact, as his 2.6 yards per rush after contact was the second-highest in the league entering last week.

Entering last week, Tennessee’s run defense ranked best in the NFL in yards per rush allowed (2.98), yards per game (61.9), and touchdowns (two) since Week 3. Thus, we look for the Titans to make Jacksonville one-dimensional. That does not bode well for Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s chances of success, as he threw one touchdown pass and five interceptions in two games against Tennessee last year. Lawrence is also battling a toe injury, which is likely a big reason the total dropped. 

Tennessee has allowed 19 or fewer points in six of its last nine games and should limit a Jacksonville offense that they held to 19 total points in the two meetings last year. Thus, we like the Under to cash for the eighth time in Tennessee’s last 10 games.

Jaguars vs. Titans Best Odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
4141.5414141
Over -115, Under -105Over -105, Under -115Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -107, Under -107

As Under backers, it is a no-brainer to make this wager at FanDuel, as getting a half-point more in value is worth the slightly extra juice. Bettors should jump on this total now, as it would plummet if Lawrence were to surprisingly be ruled out with his toe injury.

Where to Bet on Jaguars vs. Titans

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Jaguars vs. Titans picks made 12/9 at 6:22 a.m. ET.