Texans vs. Patriots Predictions: Best Odds at Prediction Markets for Divisional Round

New England hosts Houston for the Divisional Round playoff on Sunday, and I'm dropping my best Texans vs. Patriots predictions with the best odds from the Kalshi prediction market.

The Patriots come into this one as 3.5-point betting favorites before the 3 p.m. ET kickoff (ESPN) from Gillette Stadium. Let's dive into who I see advancing in the NFL playoff bracket.  

💰 Texans vs. Patriots predictions

🆚 Who will win Texans vs. Patriots at prediction markets?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The Patriots come into the Divisional Round with a 61% chance to win, trading at 62 cents per share for "yes", while the Texans own a 39% chance to walk out of New England with a victory, trading at 39 cents per share. Using our odds converter, this means that the Patriots are -156 favorites, with the Texans earning +156 betting odds as underdogs.  

To me, the value is undoubtedly on the Texans, who come into this game with the best overall defense remaining in the playoffs.

Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Texans 

See all of our NFL picks throughout the playoffs.

We all know Drake Maye has had the easiest schedule of all teams remaining in the playoffs - I can't wait to see what he does against the best defense in football. I'll give Houston the benefit of the doubt to squeeze this one out on the road with the value we're getting at Kalshi.

⚖️ Texans vs. Patriots spread & Over/Under at prediction markets

Our prediction: Under 41.5

There may not be a better prediction in this game. The Under 41.5 "yes" market makes total sense to me. We have the best scoring defense in the league up against a quarterback who hasn't sniffed a complete unit like this one yet this season, and the third-best scoring defense in New England up against a struggling offense without their best playmaker in Nico Collins. Fire this up as my best prediction of Sunday.

🙌 Texans vs. Patriots props at prediction markets

Kalshi offers a wide range of props on every game, including team totals, player touchdowns, receptions, and passing, rushing, and receiving yards on all notable skill players. Simply choose the market of your liking, select your desired player and prop line and make your pick on "Yes" or "No."

Dalton Schultz is providing the best value on the board for the Texans with Nico Collins out. At 28 cents per share, don't hesitate investing in the tight end to score a touchdown prior to kick off.

Texans vs. Patriots touchdown scorer props at prediction markets

💰 Texans vs. Patriots touchdown prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson to score anytime touchdown (36%)

For my Texans vs. Patriots prediction, watch out for the Rhamondre Stevenson market, as he's my best anytime touchdown bet for the Divisional Round. He's the Patriots' red-zone back, and New England will play it safe inside the 10-yard line, where limiting mistakes will be a priority in a low-scoring game.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook. For example, in an NFL-style market, there could be a contract asking whether the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. If you think they will, you might buy a “Yes” contract at 35 cents, which implies a 35 percent chance. If the Bills win, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 65 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on Texans vs. Patriots at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

💡 NFL Divisional Round expert picks

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