Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Best Bets Today: Divisional Round Picks
I’m riding with Houston to cover the spread as the underdog in my Texans vs. Patriots prediction for today’s Divisional Round showdown at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough (3 p.m. ET on ESPN).
The Patriots are the 3 or 3.5-point betting favorite. Along with a Houston cover, I'm expecting a low-scoring game and a touchdown from Rhamondre Stevenson as part of our NFL playoff predictions for the Divisional Round.
🏈 Texans vs. Patriots prediction: NFL Divisional Round
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 40.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans +3 | -104 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD | +165 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Texans vs. Patriots best bet: Under 40.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
We’ve got an elite scoring defense squaring off with a quarterback in Drake Maye who hasn’t seen anything close to this kind of unit all season; on the flip side, New England’s third-best scoring defense is lining up against an offense that’s already sputtering - and now has to move the ball without Nico Collins.
It certainly helps that Houston has been a reliable Under team all season, going 11-6 this year. This matchup has ugly written all over it, and don’t be surprised if the total gets pushed down into the 30s by kickoff.
Score prediction: Patriots 13, Texans 10
💵 More Texans vs. Patriots picks!
Our Liam Fox also expects Houston's offense to struggle without Collins in his Texans vs. Patriots player props.
🙌 Best Texans vs. Patriots touchdown scorer prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson (+165) ⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Keep an eye on Rhamondre Stevenson - he’s my favorite anytime touchdown play of the Divisional Round. He’s New England’s go-to option near the goal line, and in what projects to be a low-scoring matchup, expect the Pats to lean conservative inside the 10, prioritizing ball security and letting Stevenson do the dirty work in the trenches. Stevenson has four touchdowns across his last four games, and at +165 betting odds, I'll take that value all day long.
📊 Texans vs. Patriots odds: NFL Divisional Round
Our live Texans vs. Patriots odds update in real time.
📈 Texans vs. Patriots betting trends: NFL Divisional Round
| Texans | Statistic | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L record | 14-3 |
| 10-8 | ATS record | 12-5-1 |
| 6-11 | O/U record | 11-7 |
| 5.2 | Yards per play | 6.2 |
| 4.7 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1 |
| +0.9 | Turnover margin | +0.1 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
🚑 Texans vs. Patriots latest injuries
🌤️ Texans vs. Patriots weather: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every playoff game.
The Texans-Patriots matchup carries the best chance for snow of any Divisional Round game, even if that probability sits at a modest 26% as of midweek - something to monitor as Sunday gets closer.
On the field, both defenses are riding high after smothering efforts in the Wild Card round, allowing a combined nine points and not a single touchdown. It’s no surprise, then, that this showdown owns the lowest total on the weekend at 41 points.
📺 How to watch Texans vs. Patriots: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: ESPN
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