Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: Divisional Round
New England hosts Houston for the Divisional Round playoff on Sunday, and I'm dropping my best Texans vs. Patriots predictions to get you set for all the action at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Gillette Stadium as part of our NFL playoff predictions.
The Patriots come into this one as 3.5-point betting favorites at home - will Drake Maye be able to cash in on another W against the best defense in the playoffs? Let's find out.
🏈 Texans vs. Patriots prediction: NFL Divisional Round
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 40.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans +3 | -104 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +165 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Texans vs. Patriots best bet: Under 40.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
We’ve got an elite scoring defense squaring off with a quarterback in Drake Maye who hasn’t seen anything close to this kind of unit all season; on the flip side, New England’s third-best scoring defense is lining up against an offense that’s already sputtering - and now has to move the ball without Nico Collins. It helps that Houston is one of the best Under teams in the league this year, too (11-6). Make no mistake, this one is going to be ugly, and we could see this number in the 30s before kickoff.
Score prediction: Patriots 13, Texans 10
🙌 Best Texans vs. Patriots touchdown scorer prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson (+165) ⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Keep an eye on Rhamondre Stevenson - he’s my favorite anytime touchdown play of the Divisional Round. He’s New England’s go-to option near the goal line, and in what projects to be a low-scoring matchup, expect the Pats to lean conservative inside the 10, prioritizing ball security and letting Stevenson do the dirty work in the trenches. Stevenson has four touchdowns across his last four games, and at +165 betting odds, I'll take that value all day long.
📊 Texans vs. Patriots odds: NFL Divisional Round
Our live Texans vs. Patriots odds update in real time.
📈 Texans vs. Patriots betting trends: NFL Divisional Round
| Texans | Statistic | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L record | 14-3 |
| 10-8 | ATS record | 12-5-1 |
| 6-11 | O/U record | 11-7 |
| 5.2 | Yards per play | 6.2 |
| 4.7 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1 |
| +0.9 | Turnover margin | +0.1 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
🚑 Texans vs. Patriots latest injuries
🌤️ Texans vs. Patriots weather: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every playoff game.
The Texans-Patriots matchup carries the best chance for snow of any Divisional Round game, even if that probability sits at a modest 26% as of midweek - something to monitor as Sunday gets closer.
On the field, both defenses are riding high after smothering efforts in the Wild Card round, allowing a combined nine points and not a single touchdown. It’s no surprise, then, that this showdown owns the lowest total on the weekend at 41 points.
📺 How to watch Texans vs. Patriots: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: ESPN
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