Texans vs. Patriots Expert Picks for Divisional Round: NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds
New England welcomes Houston to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. for today's Divisional Round matchup at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN), and I'm dropping my Texans vs. Patriots expert picks to get you ready for kickoff.
The Patriots are the 3.5-point betting favorites at most books - will he be able to take down the best defense in football? Let's dive in as part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions.
🏈 Texans vs. Patriots expert picks: NFL Divisional Round predictions
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.
| Betting expert | Best bet | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Saracini | Under 40.5 | -104 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Liam Fox | Drake Maye Over 219.5 passing yards | -113 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Philip Wood | Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer | +190 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Gary Pearson | Rhamondre Stevenson first touchdown scorer | +800 via BetMGM | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
🔮 Texans vs. Patriots prediction
Under 40.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dustin Saracini: We’ve got an elite scoring defense squaring off with a quarterback in Drake Maye who hasn’t seen anything close to this kind of unit all season; on the flip side, New England’s third-best scoring defense is lining up against an offense that’s already sputtering - and now has to move the ball without Nico Collins.
It helps that Houston is one of the best Under teams in the league this year, too (11-6). Make no mistake, this one is going to be ugly, and we could see this number in the 30s before kickoff.
See Saracini's full analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots predictions, including his favorite player prop bet and the best Divisional Round betting trends, injury report, and more.
🔥 Best Texans vs. Patriots player prop pick
Drake Maye Over 219.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Liam Fox: In a matchup of strength-on-strength, I'm backing Drake Maye to come out on top.
Maye's passing yardage total is too low, even going against Houston's ferocious pass rush. The second-team All-Pro just threw for nearly 270 yards last week against the Chargers' top-five pass defense.
See Fox's full analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots player props, including his best bet for C.J. Stroud and Hunter Henry for the Divisional Round.
🙌 Best Texans vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer pick
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots (+190) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Philip Wood: If the NFL’s second-ranked scoring defense has any flaws, it’s covering tight ends. The Texans have allowed eight touchdowns to the position, which is great news for Henry, who leads the Patriots with seven receiving touchdowns.
Henry has scored in three of his last four games, including last week against the Chargers. Henry is second on the team with 60 receptions, 768 yards, and 87 targets, and it’s safe to assume he’ll get plenty of looks in a deceivingly solid matchup.
See Wood's full analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the Divisional Round, including Jayden Higgins. You can follow all of our NFL touchdown props for the biggest games every week.
1️⃣ Best Texans vs. Patriots first touchdown scorer pick
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots (+800) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gary Pearson: Stevenson scored four rushing and two receiving TDs in the final three games of the season. It's that dual threat that makes him my best bet. With the Texans' aggressive, swarming defense, Drake Maye will likely prioritize Stevenson as a screen option.
Stevenson's ability to maximize yards after the catch helps. He was impressive in the wild-card victory, doing everything but punching it into the end zone.
See Pearson's full analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots first touchdown scorer predictions for the Divisional Round, including Hunter Henry.
🚀 Texans vs. Patriots same-game parlay
Here's a look at what our NFL expert Philip Wood is betting tonight with his best Divisional Round SGP paying out at +625 odds:
💵 Texans vs. Patriots SGP bets
- Texans +3 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Christian Kirk Over 4.5 receptions (+152) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best SGP odds: +625 via DraftKings ($10 to win $62.50)
See Wood's full analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots same-game parlay, including his analysis for all three SGP bets for the Divisional Round. You can follow all of our NFL same-game parlay bets for the biggest games every week.
📊 Texans vs. Patriots odds: NFL Divisional Round
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.
📺 How to watch Texans vs. Patriots: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 17
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: ESPN
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