NFL Teaser Picks Week 18: Seahawks Show Up in Must-Win Game
The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions are faced with must-win matchups in order to have a chance of advancing to the postseason this week. The pair of playoff hopefuls headline our top NFL Week 18 teaser picks based on the odds.
Teasers allow bettors to move multiple spread and/or totals across key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. They’re popular bets among both professional and recreational sports gamblers, and our teaser betting primer offers additional information and strategies.
Check out our NFL Week 18 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 18 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 18 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Seahawks (-6.5 vs. Rams)
This is a must-win game for the Seattle Seahawks, and I value moving this spread down to a pick’em (-0.5) with a six-point teaser. The Los Angeles Rams haven’t won on the road since Week 3, and they’ll hit Lumen Field without multiple impact players on both sides of the ball again in Week 18.
Admittedly, this is probably a hold-your-nose leg. I’m just anticipating Seattle building off their commanding 23-6 win over the New York Jets in Week 17. I'm also encouraged that the Los Angeles Chargers laid out an easy-to-follow blueprint for dismantling the Rams last week.
Underdog to tease up: Lions (+4.5 vs. Packers)
The Green Bay Packers may be peaking at the right time, but this spread was GB -3 in look-ahead markets, and I also have the Packers power ranked as a -3 home favorite. A six-point teaser moves this line above the key number of 10, so the Detroit Lions just need to stay competitive Sunday night to cash this leg.
This is also a must-win finale for both of these division rivals. As a result, I’m expecting it to finish as a one-possession game. The Lions rank sixth in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and fourth in points per game, so I have confidence in Detroit putting enough points on the board to cover the inflated number.
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Week 18 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Vikings-Bears (45.5)
There isn’t much on the line for either of these teams. The Chicago Bears have lost nine consecutive games to drop to 3-13 on the season, and it’s largely been the result of ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA during the skid. However, I’m still expecting the Bears to show up, and especially quarterback Justin Fields – he needs 64 more rushing yards to break the quarterback single-season record.
I’m also expecting the Minnesota Vikings starting offense to use the first half – at least – of this matchup as a tune-up for their playoff game next week. Minny quarterback Kirk Cousins turned the ball over four times to Green Bay in Week 17, after all.
This total can be teased down through the key ranges of 43-44 and 40-41, and these two teams have a combined 21-11 Over/Under record.
Total to tease up: Jets-Dolphins (38.5)
Regardless of who starts behind center for the Miami Dolphins, I think points will be hard to come by. Backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a broken pinky finger on his throwing hand, and third-stringer Skylar Thompson has completed just 54.1% of his passes and thrown for only 5.2 yards per attempt across six appearances.
It’s a tough matchup for the ‘Fins, too. The New York Jets rank first in defense grade per Pro Football Focus, sixth in defensive DVOA and have surrendered the seventh-lowest EPA per play. Additionally, Gang Green hasn’t exactly been piling up points of their own. The Jets have averaged a pedestrian 12 per contest during their five-game losing streak.
Adding extra value, this total can also be teased through the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44.
Teaser picks made on 1/3/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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