NFL Teaser Picks Week 10: Broncos' Defense Kicks Into Hero Mode vs. Titans
The Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers headline our NFL Week 10 teasers picks.
Teaser bets are popular for both professional and recreational bettors. They provide the ability to move spreads and totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. For additional information on teaser bets and strategies, take a peek at our teaser betting primer.
Check out our NFL Week 10 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 10 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 10 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to Tease Down: 49ers (-7)
Coming off a bye and following arguably their best game of the season in Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers are in an opportune teaser spot at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. This spread can be moved down through multiple key numbers, and the 49ers could also return multiple starters to the lineup in Week 10.
The Chargers have impact starters injured on both sides of the ball and almost lost outright to the Atlanta Falcons on the road in Week 9. Now, the Bolts have to travel back across the country for a second consecutive road game.
San Fran fields a high-end defense, allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per play. It also ranks ninth in defensive DVOA - according to Football Outsiders - and grades as the sixth-highest, according to PFF. The offense is also coming off its most complete showing and best by DVOA.
I'm confident the 49ers top the Chargers at Levi's Stadium in Week 10.
Underdog to Tease Up: Broncos (+3)
With the Tennessee Titans ripe for a letdown following their 20-17 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, I like boosting the spread for the Denver Broncos.
Denver is coming off a bye week and boasts a top-tier defense. The Broncos rank second in both defensive DVOA and defense grade, per PFF. They’ve also surrendered the second-lowest EPA per play.
While it’s a different story on offense, the Broncos have still lost by more than one possession only once all season. A 6-point teaser gives Denver additional wiggle room for a game I expect them to hang around in and potentially win outright.
The Titans have also never won by more than nine points this season, and they’ve faced the second-easiest schedule in the league by DVOA.
Week 10 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to Tease Down: Cowboys-Packers (42.5)
The look-ahead total at DraftKings Sportsbook was 44.5 for this game, so you can tease this total down to 36.5 – a healthy 8-point gap. It would also move the number into the key range of 36 to 37.
There was definitely some turnover misfortune for the Green Bay Packers last week, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw two red-zone interceptions and three total. Additionally, the Dallas Cowboys offense might not need much help from Rodgers and Co. to take a run at the decreased total.
Dallas is coming off its bye week, and the Packers bring a middling defense in DVOA (18th) and PFF grade (18th) into the matchup. I expect the Dallas offense to put points on the board, so as long as Green Bay flirts with its team total of 18.5 at FanDuel, I like this teaser leg.
Admittedly, this is a little bit of a feel recommendation. I just view the total dropping this low as an overreaction by oddsmakers to Green Bay’s noted poor turnover luck in Week 9.
Total to Tease Up: Texans-Giants (40.5)
This total can be teased up above the key range of 43-44 points, which should be more than enough of a margin considering the New York Giants have an Over/Under record of 1-6-1 this season.
Add the Houston Texans ranking fourth-last in both EPA per play and offensive DVOA, and it’s almost a little surprising this total has actually climbed from an opening 38.5. After all, the Texans and Giants rank 21st and 24th, respectively, in seconds per play, so I envision a slow-paced game with both teams leaning on their rushing attacks.
I’m also encouraged by the extra time both defenses have to prepare for this matchup. The Giants are coming off a Week 9 bye and the Texans had their mini-bye last week after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football.
New York defensive coordinator Don Martindale has impressed me, too, and the Giants don’t have any significant injuries on defense heading into the matchup. I don't expect Houston to score enough to put the increased total in danger of going Over.
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