Survivor Pool Picks Week 14: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

The first four games of Thanksgiving week in the NFL were not kind to survivor pool contestants, but my later NFL survivor pool picks went largely unscathed and have us in a good spot heading into Week 14.

Once again, we pinpoint our safest pick, best survivor pick, best strategy play, and team to avoid as part of the NFL Week 14 predictions.

Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 14

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14 based on the latest NFL odds.

Safest NFL survivor pick: Buccaneers (83.05%) over Saints

Tampa Bay did not cover as a 4.5-point favorite in a 20-17 home win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, as the Buccaneers were outgained 386-279. But it should be in line for a much better performance this week against a New Orleans team that is amid its worst 12-game start since 1999 (2-10).

The Buccaneers have already blown out the Saints 23-3 at the Caesars Superdome in Week 8, a game in which it was also outgained by 63 yards. Thus, even if Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t clicking as it would hope amid all of its injuries, its lockdown defense does not make it susceptible to a home upset.

Our Gary Pearson is taking the Buccaneers (-8.5) in his NFL picks against the spread this week.

Best NFL survivor pick: Ravens (76.47%) over Steelers

These two teams are tied for first place in the AFC North standings and are each coming off losses last week. But I have more faith in Baltimore righting the ship, given how poor Pittsburgh looked in a loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills ran for 249 yards, the most by an opposing team in Pittsburgh in 50 years. That is asking for trouble against a Ravens offense that features Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

In addition, it is also fair to wonder if Aaron Rodgers had any business being under center for Pittsburgh last week. While dealing with a left wrist injury, it completely changed Pittsburgh’s offensive scheme, with him having to operate out of the pistol on running plays.

Baltimore had won five straight before its loss to Cincinnati, so I am still more optimistic about it as a home favorite than a Steelers team that is 2-5 in its last seven games.

NFL survivor strategy pick: Browns (68.55%) over Titans

About the only thing captivating about the Browns lately is Myles Garrett’s pursuit of the single-season sack record, as he enters this week four sacks shy of setting the mark.

However, this is also a great opportunity for Cleveland to earn its fourth win of the season, as it faces a Tennessee Titans team that has tied its worst 12-game start (1-11) in franchise history.

Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game. He does not figure to break that drought against a Browns defense that ranks second in sacks and yards per game allowed.

Cleveland’s next three games are against teams at .500 or better (Bears, Bills, Steelers), making it a great survivor strategy pick if one has not advanced with it in any of its previous three wins.

NFL survivor pick to avoid: Seahawks (82.14%) over Falcons

Seattle occupies the first wild card spot in the NFC at 9-3 after a 26-0 shutout win over Minnesota. But I worry about travel catching up to the Seahawks at some point, with this being the second time in three weeks they have traveled to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. ET start.

The previous such trip was a 30-24 win over Tennessee, whose 24 points were the most it scored all season. The Titans ran 21 more plays and held the ball for nearly 15 more minutes in that game, and the Falcons could turn in a similar script behind the competent running back duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 14

Circa Sports divided its survivor contests into two parts (an A and B slate) for Week 13. The Thanksgiving tripleheader and the Black Friday game were included in the A slate, and everything else for the rest of the weekend from Sunday on was among the B slate.

The results from the first three Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game turned the pool on its head. There were 1,000 remaining entries entering the week.The Eagles eliminated 489, the Ravens knocked out 289, the Chiefs dropped 78 contestants, and the Lions let down another 13. In all, it marked the first time since 2003 that all underdogs won outright on Thanksgiving.

Of the 49 entries that made it through to Week 13b, four were eliminated after choosing the Rams. That means just 45 entries are left heading into Week 14 still vying for the grand prize.