Survivor Pool Picks Week 13: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

Last week’s NFL survivor pool picks were on the money as we recommended the Baltimore Ravens as the safest pick, the Seattle Seahawks as the best pick, and the San Francisco 49ers as the ace survivor choice, while advising to avoid using the Las Vegas Raiders.

We’re intent on having another solid performance as we hop into the unique Week 13 NFL slate involving three Thanksgiving games and a Black Friday game before the weekend hits. Once again, we pinpoint our safest pick, best survivor pick, best strategy play, and team to avoid as part of the NFL Week 13 predictions.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 13

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13 based on the latest NFL odds.

🐏 Safest NFL survivor pick: Rams (88.2%) over Panthers

The Rams are coming off a dominant 34-7 win over the division-leading Buccaneers. They raced out to a 31-7 halftime lead after holding Baker Mayfield to 41 first-half passing yards, his third-fewest in the first half of a start.

Matthew Stafford continues to strengthen his NFL MVP odds resume each week. Last week, he was 8-for-9 for 141 yards and two touchdowns on passes 10-plus yards downfield in the first half, his most such completions in a first half in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

Though Los Angeles makes a cross-country trip for an early 1 p.m. ET start, that disadvantage is offset by the fact that Carolina is coming off a short week having played on Monday night on the West Coast.

⚡️ Best NFL survivor pick: Chargers (86.7%) over Raiders

Los Angeles had a three-game winning streak snapped in its last game, a 35-6 road loss to the Jaguars, which was Jacksonville’s biggest win since 2017. 

In the loss, Justin Herbert had a career-low 81 passing yards, as the Chargers’ offensive line issues were exposed. But Las Vegas is not built to take advantage of that, especially after becoming the first team to lose to a Browns rookie quarterback making his first NFL start since 1995.

Raiders head coach Pete Carroll has now lost five straight games, which is tied for the longest losing streak of his career as a head coach. And Las Vegas is off to a 2-9 or worse start in consecutive seasons for the second time in franchise history, so this is a great get-right game for the Chargers, especially when coming off a bye.

🐬 NFL survivor strategy pick: Dolphins (74.7%) over Saints

I have already tipped the Dolphins once as an NFL survivor strategy pick in their international win over the Commanders, but this is an even better spot at home coming off a bye week against the Saints.

New Orleans’ 2-9 start is its worst 11-game start to a season since 1999. Meanwhile, it is facing a Miami team playing its best football off back-to-back wins for the first time this season. And running back De’Von Achane has been a handful, becoming the first Dolphins player with at least 165 scrimmage yards in consecutive games since Jay Ajayi in 2016.

Also, do not be surprised if the Saints start slow. They are an NFL-worst 1-10 ATS in the first quarter this season and have been outscored 85-19 in the 11 first quarters.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Jaguars (79.0%) over Titans

Jacksonville is likely to be one of the most popular survivor picks this week, facing a Tennessee team amid the longest active home losing streak in the NFL (10 games). But something worries me about the Jaguars playing their second straight road game off an overtime contest out west last week, against a Titans team playing a whopping fourth straight home game.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is also coming off a four-turnover game, and this is also a trap spot with a game against the division-leading Colts on tap next week, whom they trail by one game. 

Jacksonville still has home games against these same Titans and the two-win Jets left on its schedule. Those are each better opportunities to use the Jaguars in survivor pools if you haven’t already.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 13

For the second straight week, the top five most widely used teams in the Circa Survivor pool hosted by Circa Sports all advanced in Week 12. The biggest casualties on Sunday of Week 12 were those contestants who used the Raiders (3.1% of remaining entries) and Saints (five total entries). There are 900 entries remaining and vying for the grand prize.