NFL Survivor Picks Week 8: Soar On With Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and Buffalo Bills are all huge favorites this week. As a result, they are our top-three picks for NFL survivor pools in Week 8.
It’s been a nasty season for survivor poolies, as multiple significant favorites went down again in Week 7. If you’ve navigated your way to this point of the season, there are a trio of large home favorites in the Bills, Cowboys, and Eagles to target in Week 8.
Check our top Week 8 NFL odds and lines and ATS power rankings.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.
Week 8 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Oct. 26, at 10 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Eagles | -10.5 | -550 | 84.6% |
| Cowboys | -9.5 | -460 | 82.1% |
| Bills | -10.5 | -500 | 83.3% |
| Dolphins | -3.5 | -174 | 63.5% |
| Bengals | -3.5 | -196 | 66.2% |
| Colts | -3 | -152 | 60.3% |
| Vikings | -3.5 | -200 | 66.7% |
| Falcons | -4.5 | -220 | 68.8% |
| Ravens | -1.5 | -118 | 54.1% |
| Jaguars | -2.5 | -156 | 60.9% |
| Titans | -2.5 | -134 | 57.3% |
| Seahawks | -3 | -146 | 59.3% |
| Patriots | -1.5 | -130 | 56.5% |
| Rams | +1.5 | +100 | 50% |
| Raiders | -1.5 | -132 | 56.9% |
| Saints | +1.5 | +112 | 47.2% |
| 49ers | -1.5 | -118 | 54.1% |
| Jets | +1.5 | +110 | 47.6% |
| Giants | +3 | +124 | 44.6% |
| Texans | +2.5 | +114 | 46.7% |
| Broncos | +2.5 | +132 | 43.1% |
| Buccaneers | +1.5 | +100 | 50% |
| Panthers | +4.5 | +184 | 35.2% |
| Cardinals | +3.5 | +168 | 37.3% |
| Commanders | +3 | +128 | 43.9% |
| Browns | +3.5 | +164 | 37.9% |
| Lions | +3.5 | +146 | 40.7% |
| Packers | +10.5 | +385 | 20.6% |
| Bears | +9.5 | +360 | 21.7% |
| Steelers | +10.5 | +410 | 19.6% |
Top NFL Survivor Picks
3. Bills (vs. Packers)
The Bills are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, are coming off a bye, and are a double-digit home favorite against a team with a losing record in Week 8.
Sounds like a layup to me.
The Bills rank first in the NFL in DVOA per Football Outsiders, and their defense has surrendered the third-lowest EPA per play. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is also pacing the NFL in success rate and adjusted net yards per target while throwing for a career-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
Buffalo could easily be the No. 1 recommendation this week, as I may still be overvaluing the Green Bay Packers. Alas, while potentially stubborn, I envision the Packers improving on their 25th-ranked defensive DVOA in the coming weeks. Additionally, if the positive regression begins Sunday, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers could make things interesting in the primetime spot.
Or, more likely, the Bills march up and down the field and blow out the Pack while Bills Mafia goes wild on Sunday Night Football.
2. Cowboys (vs. Bears)
I’ve already highlighted a number of key factors in the Chicago Bears-Cowboys game in our top NFL teaser picks of Week 8.
So, I’ll just add that this is also a terrible schedule spot for the Bears. Not only is Chicago ripe for a letdown showing and on a short week following its 33-14 road upset of the New England Patriots on Monday, but this will also be the fourth road game in five weeks for the Bears.
Additionally, I’m expecting the Dallas offense to both execute more big plays and dominante the time of possession with quarterback Dak Prescott making his second start following a five-week absence due to a thumb injury.
1. Eagles (vs. Steelers)
Another team coming off a bye, the Eagles are also double-digit home favorites. They also have the luxury of hosting the 2-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. This will be the Steelers' third road game in four weeks, and Pickett has thrown an interception on 5.5% of his passing attempts.
The Eagles also check every box, and they’ve largely avoided injuries to this point of the season. Veteran right tackle Lane Johnson (concussion) is the lone starter who’s iffy to suit up Sunday against Pittsburgh.
I also expect the Steelers' offense to struggle to keep pace with the Eagles. The Steelers rank fifth-last in EPA per play and 24th in offensive DVOA, whereas the Philadelphia defense ranks fourth in both metrics. There’s also a huge disparity in the overall grades per PFF. The Eagles are the highest-graded team in the NFL, and the Steelers are 23rd.
Others to Consider
- Bengals vs. Browns
- Jaguars vs. Broncos (Neutral site)
- Dolphins vs. Lions
Favorite to Fade
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
There’s been a considerable influx of money on the Carolina Panthers this week. The Atlanta Falcons have been bet down from 6.5-point favorites at opening to as low as 4-point favorites at multiple top-ranked sportsbooks.
Simply put, that has caught my attention, and I view the Carolina defense as an above-average unit. In particular, the Panthers have allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per rushing attempt.
So, with Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota attempting just 27 total passes over the past two weeks, this might not be the best matchup for an Atlanta rushing attack that ranks fourth in DVOA and sixth in success rate.
Additionally, the Atlanta defense is arguably the worst in the league. The Falcons rank last in defensive DVOA and third-last in EPA per play allowed.
Others to Consider
- Colts vs. Commanders
- Titans at Texans
- 49ers at Rams
Where to Bet on the NFL
