NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 7
Should the New York Giants be catching three points against the Jacksonville Jaguars despite their 5-1 record? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite picks against the spread in Week 7.
Every time I hear someone complain about the Giants getting three points at Jacksonville this week, I might throw an extra $20 on the Jaguars. Even though one team is 5-1 and the other is 2-4, that doesn't mean the 5-1 team should be favored.
The following is the power rankings of my favorite point spread bets for Week 7 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 3 p.m. ET).
Check out our NFL Week 7 odds and lines analysis.
10. Broncos -3 (+100 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Jets
As a result of winning their third consecutive game, the New York Jets will be very well supported in the market this week, which explains why I believe the Denver Broncos are trading at a lower number than they should be. There are some links of Broncos -3.5 (-110) out there that would not even make it into our power ranking, but with Caesars trading them at -3 (+100), they come in at No. 10.
9. Niners +3 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Chiefs
I love the three points we are getting with the San Francisco 49ers, but there is a major but. Before I make this wager, I need to gain a better understanding of all the Niners' injury situations, specifically Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, and Mike McGlinchey. When the injury reports are released, I would feel very comfortable backing the Niners at +3 at home against the Kansas City Chiefs if we receive positive news regarding these players.
8. Buccaneers -10.5 (-110 via PointsBet) at Panthers
In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a brutal loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I won't turn my back on Tom Brady and Co. The Carolina Panthers just traded away wide receiver Robby Anderson and are clearly in full tank mode. I do not expect the Panthers to put up much of a fight on Sunday, and the Buccaneers will be eager to make a statement with all the doubters starting to voice their opinions. I make the Buccaneers 11-point favorites for Week 7, so the edge is minimal, but the numbers also don't account for the Panthers' intentional tanking.
7. Cowboys -7 (-105 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Lions
Coming off of a bye week, the Detroit Lions may have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, but that does not change the fact that they have the worst defense in the NFL. If the line drops below the key number of 7, the bet would rank much higher in my power rankings. With the assumption that Dak Prescott will be the starting quarterback, I make the Dallas Cowboys just below 8-point favorites and therefore favor their side.
6. Patriots -7.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Bears
Are the New England Patriots better off with Bailey Zappe at quarterback? With Zappe at the helm of the offense, the oddsmakers have downgraded the Patriots in the power ratings the last two weeks, but this is not the case in Week 7. Although the odds have been adjusted to better reflect Zappe's level of play, I do not believe that they have been adjusted sufficiently. I make the Patriots 8.5-point favorites over the Chicago Bears for Monday Night Football. I strongly believe that a team that has shown in the past two weeks that it is capable of blowing out its opponents should be backed.
5. Jaguars -3 (-105 via PointsBet) vs. Giants
Early this week, the common narrative I am hearing is that the Jaguars should not be 3-point favorites against the 5-1 Giants. You are absolutely right, they should be 4.5-point favorites. As we are already seeing increased juice at several shops on the Jaguars -3 line, I anticipate this will be Jaguars -3.5 within a short period of time. It is possible that we will see some serious reverse line movement in this game since the public seems very content with backing the Giants at +3.
4. Titans -2.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Colts
There is a strong sense of urgency when buying the Tennessee Titans at -2.5 early in the week, as you will want this in your pocket before the key number of 3 points is reached. In terms of offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, only the Panthers are worse than the Indianapolis Colts. Despite defeating the Jaguars in Week 6, the Colts are not a good football team. I make the Titans 4.5-point favorites over the Colts at home, so I want to buy this immediately before it increases through some key numbers.
3. Falcons +6.5 (-114 via FanDuel) at Bengals
The old saying goes, don't bet against streaks, bet on them. The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread because the power ratings have not accurately reflected their performance, and they still do not in Week 7. Even though the name power might be on the side of the Cincinnati Bengals, the offensive DVOA metric via Football Outsiders indicates that the Falcons are the more efficient offense. In my opinion, you will not be able to do any better than Falcons +6.5; this line should move toward the Falcons very quickly and may adjust to Falcons +5.5 by Wednesday.
2. Dolphins -7 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Steelers
After starting the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have lost three consecutive games, largely due to injuries at quarterback. My expectation is that the Dolphins will be able to right the ship against the Steelers, who may have won a game over the Buccaneers, but are still not a good team. Upon the official announcement of Tua Tagovailoa returning to the Dolphins' starting lineup, we should see this spread increase from Dolphins -7.
1. Seahawks +7 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook) at Chargers
The Seattle Seahawks remain atop the power rankings for the second consecutive week. I felt the Seahawks should have been favored over the Cardinals last week but they were 3-point underdogs. They went on to win outright by 10 points. Despite the Los Angeles Chargers being the rightful favorites, the spread is way too high, making it extremely valuable to bet the key number of 7 points on the Seahawks. Expect this line to move away from the key number as the week progresses.
Where to Bet on NFL ATS Picks
Picks made 10/17/2022 at 6:08 p.m. ET.
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