Super Bowl Odds: Should You Bet the Bills, Packers, Steelers After Week 1?

After a thrilling start to the 2025 NFL season, the latest Super Bowl odds feature a handful of title contenders who made title statements in Week 1.

The Buffalo Bills are the betting favorites by the latest NFL odds after a stunning comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Those two join the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles and surging Green Bay Packers, who authored the most impressive Week 1 win of any contender, as the only teams priced shorter than +1000 entering Week 2.

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📈 Super Bowl odds movement after Week 1

Check out all of our early NFL picks for Week 2.

• The Bills (+700) looked like they were on the wrong end of a beatdown by the Ravens (+650), but Josh Allen lead Buffalo's offense to an inspired fourth-quarter rally to bolster his NFL MVP odds along the way. That slashed the Bills' odds to as short as +450 but as high as +700 after Week 1.
• No team has seen more odds movement in recent weeks than the Packers (+900), who were dealing as high as +2200 before the Micah Parsons trade and +1400 before Week 1. Those both look like a bargain in hindsight after a season-opening blowout over the slumping Detroit Lions (+2000).
• Concern grows for the Kansas City Chiefs (+1200), who looked sluggish in a Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers (+2300) following a listless performance in the Super Bowl to end last year. The AFC West looks wide open with those two and the Denver Broncos (+2500) in contention.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers (+5500) showed signs of life behind Aaron Rodgers in a thrilling Week 1 win over the New York Jets (+30000). The defense appears to be a massive concern, though, along with a reworked run game.
• The Indianapolis Colts (+12500) enjoyed the biggest blowout win of Week 1, though that might say more about the state of the Miami Dolphins (+20000), who could have the inside track for the No. 1 pick at this rate.

🦬 Is it finally Buffalo's year?

😤 Allen won't be denied in comeback win

If you turned off Sunday Night Football after the Ravens' dominant start, you'd be forgiven for missing what might be the best game of the 2025 NFL season - and an early statement by the Bills in the Super Bowl odds market.

Buffalo rallied from down 15 in the fourth quarter behind a truly brilliant performance from Allen, who combined for 424 yards and four touchdowns in a quintessential MVP performance to knock off the preseason Super Bowl favorites. The Bills needed it, too, given their struggles on defense and on the ground for the first three quarters of this game.

They certainly benefitted from a few lucky bounces - none bigger than on a fourth-down throw to stay alive down two scores - but it followed a similar script to the one that Allen has been writing in his superstar ascent.

🔵 Bills Super Bowl odds (+700)

There is clearly value to be found for those who are buying Buffalo as a Super Bowl contender this year - the best NFL betting sites were pricing the Bills anywhere from +450 to +700 in the minutes after their wild win over Baltimore.

I'm not sure any team should feature those shorter odds given how many star quarterbacks are leading stacked rosters in 2025, but it's hard not to buy into a Buffalo title run at those +700 odds via FanDuel, which imply a 12.50% chance of the Bills winning it all while turning a $10 bet into a $70 profit.

The real reason to make this bet isn't just how Buffalo looked in Week 1 - it's what the win means for its title chances. The Bills now have a de facto two-game lead over the Ravens for home-field advantage (an extra win plus the head-to-head tiebreaker), and with the Chiefs looking lethargic for yet another season, that could mean everything looking ahead to January.

🧀 Should the Packers be NFC favorites?

💪 Green Bay bullies Detroit in Parsons' debut

The betting market had already taken notice of these new-look Packers after they dealt for Parsons on the eve of the NFL season. But few expected the level of dominance on both sides of the ball against the rival Lions.

Green Bay's defense led the way in a 27-13 win that wasn't even that close until window dressing late by Detroit's offense, which looked like a shell of itself in the first game post-Ben Johnson. That came even Parsons playing fewer than half his team's snaps as he works his way into better health and scheme familiarity.

Jordan Love had little trouble delivering the ball all over the field - he hit nine different receivers by halftime - to help steal an early lead from the reigning NFC North champions. It's only one week, but it feels clear that Green Bay is the team to beat in the division ... and maybe the conference, too.

🟢 Packers Super Bowl odds (+900)

Even after that impressive win, Green Bay still ranks second in the NFC behind the Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.

That seems reasonable to me - has anyone figured out a way to stop Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in the same game? - but it's scary to think of how good this team could be once Parsons is fully acclimated into Jeff Hafley's defense, which already looks like a terrifying unit in Year 2 of his system.

If you're buying the Packers as the team to beat in the NFC, a $10 bet at DraftKings would return a $90 profit with a 10% implied probability at those odds for a Green Bay title run.

🏗️ Can you trust hot start from Steelers, Aaron Rodgers?

🔥 Rodgers gets revenge in throwback performance

Don't get it twisted: Aaron Rodgers isn't the same player he was when he won four MVPs before a downturn in play in 2022. But the 41-year-old passer clearly has enough in the tank to strike fear in opposing defenses.

Pittsburgh's offense had little trouble moving the ball behind Rodgers (244 yards, 4 TDs), who looked at ease in coordinator Arthur Smith's play action-heavy offense. It was Rodgers' 28th career game with at least four touchdowns and zero interceptions - tied with Tom Brady for the most in NFL history - and all four of those scores were essentially wide open.

That helped overcome a shaky performance from the Steelers' shoddy secondary, which was already a weak point before injuries exacerbated the issue on Sunday. The team also needed Chris Boswell to drill two deep field goals (56, 60) to stave off the Jets' own inspired offensive output.

⚫️ Steelers Super Bowl odds (+5500)

Look, I'll be the first to admit that I did not see Rodgers throwing four touchdowns to lead this offense to 30-plus points in his debut. That alone deserves the attention of any bettor across the league.

I do think this team's defensive woes are a legitimate concern - so does linebacker Patrick Queen, who described his unit with more colorful language after the win - and I think it's fair to pour cold water on Rodgers' MVP buzz given how much of his success was designed open.

But at these +5500 odds via FanDuel, which imply a mere 1.79% chance that the Steelers win it all while turning a $10 bet into a $550 profit if they do? I'd be willing to take a shot at those odds that head coach Mike Tomlin can find enough solutions on defense to support a resuscitated offense.

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