Super Bowl MVP Odds & Prediction 2026 | Darnold, Stafford Co-Favorites to Begin NFL Playoffs

At the start of the NFL Playoffs, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford lead the Super Bowl MVP odds for 2026 at +600.

Rounding out the top five on the oddsboard are the Bills' Josh Allen (+1100), Patriots' Drake Maye (+1100), and Broncos' Bo Nix (+1100). Super Bowl LX will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Feb. 8.

📊 Super Bowl MVP odds 2026

2026 Super Bowl MVP odds via our best Super Bowl betting sites.

The seven players with the shortest odds are all quarterbacks, with Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba the highest non-QB on the board at +2000.

Quarterbacks have won seven of the previous 10 Super Bowl MVP awards. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, last season's Super Bowl MVP, is currently trading at +1500.

We'll update this page week-by-week throughout the NFL Playoffs as odds move and players are eliminated.

🏆 Super Bowl MVP favorites

Sam Darnold (+600)

Sam Darnold became the second quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in back-to-back seasons - joining Tom Brady - and the first to do so on two different teams.

While he's far from the flashiest signal-caller in the playoffs, he's made big-time throws throughout the season. The biggest hurdle for Darnold could be his limited postseason resume. He lost his only career playoff start last season, a 27-9 loss to the Rams in which he was sacked nine times.

His odds shouldn't change too much over the next week, as he has Wild Card Weekend off. Darnold's Super Bowl odds favorite Seahawks earned a first-round bye and home-field advantage as the NFC's No. 1 seed.

Matthew Stafford (+600)

Matthew Stafford had a career-best 2025 season at 37 years old and is the regular-season NFL MVP odds favorite.

He's playing on the road this Saturday in the Wild Card Round but has a favorable matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who finished with a losing record.

However, the Panthers beat the Rams in the regular season, and Los Angeles lost two of its last three entering the playoffs.

Additionally, the 5-seed Rams may have to play all of their games on the road en route to Super Bowl LX. It's a short list of teams who've reached the Super Bowl without playing a single home playoff game.

Josh Allen, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix (+1100)

All three quarterbacks are tied for the shortest odds among AFC players, but Bo Nix has a slight edge.

Like Darnold, his Broncos have a bye this weekend and will wait to see who their opponent will be in the Divisional Round.

While Allen and certainly Maye outperformed Nix this season, they both have tough matchups to get through Wild Card Weekend.

Allen's Bills begin on the road against a Jaguars team that's won eight in a row, while Maye faces a Chargers squad boasting a top-five defense.

👀 Super Bowl MVP prediction & best bet

Josh Allen (+1100)

It's hasn't always been pretty for the Buffalo Bills this season, but this feels like Josh Allen's year given the playoff field around him.

The reigning MVP won't have to contend with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or, most importantly, Patrick Mahomes this postseason. Mahomes has accounted for four of Allen's six career playoff losses.

Allen has much more playoff experience than all but Aaron Rodgers among quarterbacks on the AFC side of the bracket. Though the Bills begin the playoffs on the road, Buffalo's offense is one that should travel well as the league's top rushing attack.

Is there anyone you would rather have with the ball in his hands late in a tight game? In the playoffs, that's often what it comes down to. I'm backing Allen to win Super Bowl MVP now at the longest odds we'll see all postseason.

Best bet: Josh Allen to win Super Bowl MVP (+1100 via BetMGM)

🗒️ Super Bowl MVP odds betting strategy

Betting on Super Bowl MVP is also a bet on which team you think will win the Super Bowl, as only one player in NFL history has won the award while losing the Big Game (Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V). And history shows that it is almost always the quarterback of the winning team who receives the honor (34 out of 59 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks).

Most teams and players will be eliminated before reaching the Super Bowl, resulting in a losing bet. On the flip side, every player remaining at the end of each playoff round will likely have shorter odds than they did previously. If you feel confident in your Super Bowl MVP pick, you're better off placing a wager sooner rather than later, as you're unlikely to get better odds later on.