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Michael Pittman Jr. #11 of the Indianapolis Colts against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 20.
Michael Pittman Jr. #11 of the Indianapolis Colts against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 20. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Indianapolis Colts look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. Read on for our Steelers-Colts NFL picks.

Pittsburgh's 3-7 start is its worst since 2003. On the other side, Indianapolis is 1-1 since parting ways with Frank Reich, and interim coach Jeff Saturday nearly led the team to a home upset of the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Like the Steelers, the Colts are off to an unusually poor start, as their 4-6-1 record is their worst start through 11 games since 2017.

Here are our Steelers-Colts NFL picks for Week 12 (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Steelers-Colts same-game parlay picks and our top Monday Night Football prop bets.

Steelers vs. Colts Game Info

Date: Monday, Nov. 28, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Weather: Indoors

Steelers vs. Colts Odds

Steelers vs. Colts Odds Analysis

The Colts are currently 2.5-point favorites across all sportsbooks, though they did touch -3 at some places earlier in the week. This line will not likely come back to the key number of -3 before kickoff, as the Steelers continue to be a popular underdog, attracting 56% of the tickets and 71% of the cash.

The total opened at 39.5, and FanDuel is the only sportsbook that remained at that number, as all others have lowered to 39. That line movement is a product of the betting splits, as the Under has seen 78% of the tickets and 71% of the handle in support.

Steelers vs. Colts Picks

Steelers vs. Colts ATS Pick

Colts -2.5 (-107) ★★★

Through the first two games with Saturday at the helm, Indianapolis has upset Las Vegas on the road and had a double-digit lead on the best team in football entering the fourth quarter. In addition, the Colts held the high-powered Eagles offense to nearly 62 yards below their season average and looked dominant on the game's opening drive, with Jonathan Taylor running for 49 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh will be a popular play, given Mike Tomlin's track record. The Steelers are 18-3 straight up on MNF under Tomlin and have won 15 of their 16 matchups against teams that are not the Cincinnati Bengals. However, this year's team is a fraction of how talented his teams have been in the past. Pittsburgh's -74 point differential is the worst in the NFL, even worse than the 1-8-1 Texans' -71 point differential.

Though all sportsbooks are in unison with the same -2.5 point spread, PointsBet offers the best juice, as others require bettors to lay -115 odds to back the favorites. 

Steelers vs. Colts O/U Pick

Over 39 (-107) ★★

The Colts have scored 20 points or fewer in nine games this season, tied for the most in the NFL. Thus, consider a play on the Over a contrarian one, as we are encouraged by each team's chances of offensive success.

Pittsburgh's offensive line ranks in the top 10 in pressure allowed (22.7%), per PFF, and has graded above average in pass-blocking. Conversely, Indianapolis' defensive line is graded 27th in pass rush and 20th in win rate (44.2%). Running back Najee Harris is coming off his second career game with two-plus touchdowns, and the Steelers scored 21-plus points for the second time last week, so they are trending in the right direction.

So, too, are the Colts, despite their 16 points last week falling right on their season scoring average. Indianapolis scored once in three red-zone trips, but if the team can limit penalties in opponents' territory, it will lead to positive regression from a scoring perspective. 

Steelers vs. Colts Prop Pick

Johnson Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★★★

Diontae Johnson has 19 more targets than the next-highest Steelers pass-catcher entering this game. And while he has only exceeded this projected total twice in the last seven games, we expect a breakout opportunity this week.

Johnson ranks fifth among all wide receivers in targets from a clean pocket (70) and third in first-read targets from a clean pocket (57), per PFF. With the Colts pass rush not likely to dominate, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett will look Johnson's way early and often.

Where to Bet on Steelers vs. Colts Picks

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Steelers-Colts picks made 11/27/2022 at 8:09 a.m. ET