NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9 Best Bets & ATS Predictions for Every Game
It's a good thing Halloween is forthcoming because Week 8 represented the scariest NFL picks against the spread I've endured this season. Thanks to a wretched 7-9 against the spread record, my overall season mark fell to 54-37.
The below NFL ATS picks, which feature the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Denver Broncos, are part of the NFL predictions for Week 9.
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π NFL picks against the spread: Week 9 ATS predictions
NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Lions (-8.5) | Lions (-8.5) | ββββ |
| Seahawks (-3) vs. Commanders | Seahawks (-3) | ββββ |
| Broncos vs. Texans (-1.5) | Broncos (+1.5) | ββββ |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys (-2.5) | Cowboys (-2.5) | ββββ |
| Falcons vs. Patriots (-5.5) | Patriots (-5.5) | ββββ |
| Colts (-3) vs. Steelers | Colts (-3) | ββββ |
| Panthers vs. Packers (-12.5) | Packers (-12.5) | ββββ |
| Ravens (-7.5) vs. Dolphins | Dolphins (+7.5) | βββ |
| Bears (-2.5) vs. Bengals | Bengals (+2.5) | βββ |
| Chargers (-10) vs. Titans | Chargers (-10) | βββ |
| 49ers (-2.5) vs. Giants | Giants (+2.5) | βββ |
| Jaguars (-3) vs. Raiders | Jaguars (-3) | βββ |
| Saints vs. Rams (-13.5) | Rams (-13.5) | βββ |
| Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Bills | Bills (+1.5) | ββ |
π° My best Week 9 ATS picks
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
π¦ Lions (-8.5) vs. Vikings ββββ
The Minnesota Vikings should get a prize for being the most mismanaged team in the NFL. Not only did the franchise discard Sam Darnold during the offseason, but they pushed stand-in starter Carson Wentz past the breaking point on Thursday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers.
With Wentz out for the season, de facto rookie J.J. McCarthy - who has played just two games in a season and a half since turning pro - faces a daunting visit to Ford Field against one of the Super Bowl odds front-runners. The Lions are 3-0 at home, winning by an average margin of 23.3 points.
All of the best sports betting sites have the Lions at standard juice of -110, which implies a 52.38% probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
π’ Seahawks (-3) vs. Commanders ββββ
The Washington Commanders eventually succumbed to the Kansas City Chiefs' unabating pressure on Monday Night Football. As predicted, their offense struggled to put points on the board with Marcus Mariota under center, despite his best efforts.
The game at Arrowhead marked the seventh straight game in which Washington allowed at least 336 total yards. The Chiefs were rampant, accumulating 447 yards of total offense. The task at hand, on a short week, mind you, doesn't get any easier for Dan Quinn's team, as I outlined in my Seahawks vs. Commanders prediction.
Seattle is a perfect 9-0 on the road in the previous nine games dating back to last season, all of which were decided by at least three points. While we don't yet know the status of Washington QB Jayden Daniels, I'm dubious about his chances of winning the race against time with a hamstring injury.
Even if he proves me wrong and plays, I'll remain fastened to the Seahawks' bandwagon.
BetMGM is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering the magic number of -3, with the others at -3.5. I'll pay the slightly steeper -120 price for the field goal spread. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33
π Broncos (+1.5) vs. Texans ββββ
Bo Nix started the season as one of the league's least clutch QBs. Boy, oh boy, has that scenario been turned on its head, with the sophomore signal caller ascending our Clutch Factor QB power rankings like a thoroughbred climbing a steep incline.
I also think the Houston Texans aren't as good as these odds suggest. They beat an injury-ravaged San Francisco 49ers team last week but were dominated by the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Week 7. The Broncos' defense resembles Seattle's, aggressive and unrelenting.
Houston's offensive line struggled mightily in Seattle, and I expect a similar scenario to unfold at NRG Stadium. While both teams have defenses among the top five in DVOA and EPA per play, I'm giving the slight offensive edge to the Broncos.
The difference in odds, which range from -110 to -113, is almost negligible. BetMGM and DraftKings offer the best value at -110, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
β NFL picks against the spread FAQs
What are the best NFL ATS picks this week?
My best NFL ATS picks against the spread are: Broncos (+1.5), Lions (-8.5), and Seahawks (-3).
What does the ATS mean in NFL?
ATS in NFL betting stands for βagainst the spread.β It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.
What does against the spread mean?
Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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