NFL Picks Against the Spread Today: ATS Predictions & Best Bets for Every Game
My NFL picks against the spread today include predictions for every game on the slate while featuring three headlining matchups.
While I look to improve on my 54-37 record, favorites are 69-51-1 and home favorites are 41-29-1. The picks below, part of NFL predictions for Week 9, back nine favorites and six underdogs as we move on from an opening loss on Thursday Night Football.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 9 ATS predictions
NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Lions (-8.5) | Lions (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks (-3) vs. Commanders | Seahawks (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. Texans (-1.5) | Broncos (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys (-2.5) | Cowboys (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons vs. Patriots (-5.5) | Patriots (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts (-3) vs. Steelers | Colts (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Packers (-12.5) | Packers (-12.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-7.5) vs. Dolphins | Dolphins (+7.5) ❌ | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bears (-2.5) vs. Bengals | Bengals (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chargers (-10) vs. Titans | Chargers (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers (-2.5) vs. Giants | Giants (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars (-3) vs. Raiders | Jaguars (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Rams (-13.5) | Rams (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Bills | Bills (+1.5) | ⭐⭐ |
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💰 My best Week 9 ATS picks
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
🦁 Lions (-8.5) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Minnesota Vikings should get a prize for being the most mismanaged team in the NFL. Not only did the franchise discard Sam Darnold during the offseason, but they pushed stand-in starter Carson Wentz past the breaking point on Thursday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers.
With Wentz out for the season, de facto rookie J.J. McCarthy - who has played just two games in a season and a half since turning pro - faces a daunting visit to Ford Field against one of the Super Bowl odds front-runners. The Lions are 3-0 at home, winning by an average margin of 23.3 points.
All of the best sports betting sites have the Lions at standard juice of -110, which implies a 52.38% probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
💡 NFL expert picks for Week 9
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🟢 Seahawks (-3) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Washington Commanders eventually succumbed to the Kansas City Chiefs' unabating pressure on Monday Night Football. As predicted, their offense struggled to put points on the board with Marcus Mariota under center, despite his best efforts.
The game at Arrowhead marked the seventh straight game in which Washington allowed at least 336 total yards. The Chiefs were rampant, accumulating 447 yards of total offense. The task at hand, on a short week, mind you, doesn't get any easier for Dan Quinn's team, as I outlined in my Seahawks vs. Commanders prediction.
Seattle is a perfect 9-0 on the road in the previous nine games dating back to last season, all of which were decided by at least three points. While we don't yet know the status of Washington QB Jayden Daniels, I'm dubious about his chances of winning the race against time with a hamstring injury.
Even if he proves me wrong and plays, I'll remain fastened to the Seahawks' bandwagon, with the utmost confidence in Sam Darnold, one of the most clutch QBs.
BetMGM is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering the magic number of -3, with the others at -3.5. I'll pay the slightly steeper -120 price for the field goal spread. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33
🐎 Broncos (+1.5) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bo Nix started the season as one of the league's least clutch QBs. Boy, oh boy, has that scenario been turned on its head, with the sophomore signal caller ascending our Clutch Factor QB power rankings like a thoroughbred climbing a steep incline.
I also think the Houston Texans aren't as good as these odds suggest. They beat an injury-ravaged San Francisco 49ers team last week but were dominated by the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Week 7. The Broncos' defense resembles Seattle's, aggressive and unrelenting.
Houston's offensive line struggled mightily in Seattle, and I expect a similar scenario to unfold at NRG Stadium. While both teams have defenses among the top five in DVOA and EPA per play, I'm giving the slight offensive edge to the Broncos.
The difference in odds, which range from -110 to -113, is almost negligible. BetMGM and DraftKings offer the best value at -110, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
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