NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 12: ATS Best Bets, Predictions for Every Game
Week 12 is underway, with my NFL picks against the spread starting with a win on Thursday.
I've predicted the outcome of every game on the schedule as I look to build on my 72-61-1 (through Week 11), and dig into three key matchups below in more depth. The analysis and picks are part of the NFL predictions for Week 12.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 12 ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Giants vs. Lions (-10.5) | Lions (-10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots (-7.5) vs. Bengals | Patriots (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. 49ers (-6.5) | 49ers (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts vs. Chiefs (-3) | Chiefs (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Ravens (-13.5) | Ravens (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills (-5.5) vs. Texans | Texans (+5.5) ✅ | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings vs. Packers (-6.5) | Vikings (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers vs. Bears (-3) | Steelers (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks (-13.5) vs. Titans | Titans (+13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Cardinals | Cardinals (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons vs. Saints (-1.5) | Falcons (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams (-6.5) | Buccaneers (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-3.5) vs. Cowboys | Eagles (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Raiders (-3) | Raiders (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 My best ATS picks for Week 12
🦁 Lions (-10.5) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Lions suffered a listless, disappointing defeat against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. That presents a bounce-back opportunity, and there's no better team to turn to in such situations.
The Lions are 13-0 ATS in the last couple of seasons after losing outright. They are 3-0 ATS this season, winning by an average of 22 points, and I doubt Jaxson Dart will win the race against time.
Even if he does clear concussion protocol, the G-Men will likely err on the side of caution with their rookie, potentially franchise quarterback.
Detroit is 3-1 ATS at home, and I expect Dan Campbell and Co. to bounce back from a poor home display in their previous game at Ford Field against the Minnesota Vikings. The odds for the Lions at -10.5 range from -110 to -120, with the former offered by DraftKings.
Those odds imply a win probability of 52.38%, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. Our NFL AI predictions for Week 12 also back the Lions at the double-digit spread.
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🪖 Patriots (-7.5) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
You'll be hard-pressed to find a more methodical, precise offensive team than the Patriots. Drake Maye, among the most clutch QBs, is receiving the second-shortest MVP odds, and there are no signs of any forthcoming slip-ups or regression.
He gets a chance to feast on a Cincinnati Bengals team that has the worst defensive DVOA and EPA per play, while allowing the most points per game (33.4). Even the Dallas Cowboys' defense looks elite in comparison.
It also feels like Joe Flacco has little left to give.
He's done an admirable job, but you can't expect a 40-year-old quarterback to score on every drive, which, at least ostensibly, is what is required when your defense can't muster a stop. Oh, I almost forgot to mention: Trey Hendrickson probably won't feature.
Only BetMGM and FanDuel offer the Patriots at -7.5, with the other best sports betting sites at -8 or -8.5. Of those two, FanDuel's -112 odds are the best value, where a winning $10 bet will yield an $8.93 profit.
⛏️ 49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The 49ers are as healthy as they've been all season, with Brock Purdy taking over duties from Mac Jones, who kept the ship afloat during his absence. Purdy was solid, if not superb, in his first game back under center, tossing three TDs to go along with 200 passing yards.
Most importantly, the 49ers enjoyed their most dominant performance of the season, beating the Arizona Cardinals by 19 on the road. I expect the feel-good factor to extend into Week 12 when they host the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina faces a potential letdown spot after the euphoric highs of its comeback victory over the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. They're playing their third road game in the last four weeks, covering vast distances in doing so.
You can get the 49ers at -6.5 or -7. Caesars provides the best value at -6.5, offering -117 odds, which carries a 53.92% probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.55. Our Phil Wood sides with the Under with his early Panthers vs. 49ers prediction.
💡 More Week 12 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 11.
💡 NFL expert picks for Week 12
Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 12 throughout the week.
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