Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction Today: AFC Championship Game Expert Picks & Best Bets
My Patriots vs. Broncos prediction today expects a dominant defensive performance from Denver at home to keep the AFC Championship Game close.
Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High (CBS), with the Patriots a 4.5-point road betting favorite to advance to Super Bowl 60. My Conference Championship predictions also include a Courtland Sutton player prop.
🏈 Patriots vs. Broncos prediction: AFC Championship Game
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos +4.5 | -112 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 42.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown | +290 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Patriots vs. Broncos best bet: Broncos +4.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Don't underestimate this Broncos team. The first time Drake Maye and the Patriots faced a real defense was last week against the Houston Texans, and he promptly turned the ball over three times, fumbling four times. If Jarrett Stidham can be serviceable, watch that vaunted Denver defense do the rest and keep this one close, if not win outright. This is undoubtedly one of my best bets for Conference Championship weekend.
Score prediction: Patriots 14, Broncos 10
🙌 Best Patriots vs. Broncos touchdown scorer prediction: Courtland Sutton (+290) ⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Sutton, anyone? If there's one thing I know, it's that backup quarterbacks rely on their No. 1 weapon when getting thrust into the spotlight. Enter Sutton, who was targeted nine times last week. Yes, Bo Nix was at the helm, but head coach Sean Payton seems to have a ton of confidence in Jarrett Stidham, and New England's red-zone defense leaves a lot to be desired (ranked 23rd in football), leading me to believe this inflated price is worth sprinkling a .5u wager on. He's one of my favorite anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Conference Championship weekend.
Meanwhile, our Sean Tomlinson highlights a Patriots running back to score in his Patriots vs. Broncos same-game parlay.
📊 Patriots vs. Broncos odds today: AFC Championship Game
Our live Patriots vs. Broncos odds update in real time.
🔎 Patriots vs. Broncos betting insights
Patriots vs. Broncos betting insights courtesy of BetMGM.
- 71% of the spread bets are on the Patriots to cover
- 71% of the moneyline bets are on the Patriots to win
- 56% of the total bets are on the Over
📈 Patriots vs. Broncos betting trends: AFC Championship Game
| Patriots | Statistic | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | W-L record | 14-3 |
| 13-5-1 | ATS record | 8-9-1 |
| 12-7 | O/U record | 8-10 |
| 5.3 | Yards per play | 6.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards allowed per play | 4.5 |
| +0.2 | Turnover margin | +0.1 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
🚑 Patriots vs. Broncos latest injuries
🌤️ Patriots vs. Broncos weather: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every playoff game.
Denver is in for a brutally cold afternoon, with kickoff temperatures around 19 degrees and wind chills dipping to roughly 9 by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Winds should be noticeable, but snow isn’t much of a concern, as the massive winter storm sweeping the U.S. is largely expected to bypass Colorado aside from the deep freeze.
📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Broncos today: AFC Championship Game
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: CBS
🔮 Patriots vs. Broncos predictions
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
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- How the Broncos win the Super Bowl
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- Patriots vs. Broncos weather report
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