Packers vs. Giants Player Props Today: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 11

Jameis Winston gets his first start under center for the New York Giants in their first game after firing head coach Brian Daboll, and I break down how that impacts my Packers vs. Giants player props today. Green Bay lowered from a 7.5 to a 7-point betting favorite following that news. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). 

My NFL Week 11 predictions expect the Giants to let Winston do what he does best and call a very pass-heavy game plan, while my anytime touchdown scorer wager focuses on a Packers wide receiver who was injured to start the season.

✅ Packers vs. Giants player prop bets today

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12.

💰 Best Packers vs. Giants player props

⬆️  Josh Jacobs player prop: Longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Josh Jacobs is the first player in Packers franchise history with one or more rushing touchdowns in eight of the first nine games of a season. But since his anytime touchdown odds are too steep, I am backing him to break at least one explosive run as my best Packers vs. Giants player prop.

New York has allowed 1,521 rushing yards through its first 10 games, with opposing players averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Of the 163 teams in the Super Bowl era to allow at least 1,500 rushing yards through the first 10 games, the Giants’ 5.5 yards per carry average allowed is tied for the worst. 

Jacobs has only broken one run of 16-plus yards in the last four games, but this is an excellent matchup for him to do so for a second time in the last five. If he does, my $10 wager through BetMGM’s -105 odds at a 51.22% implied probability would net $9.52 in profits.

⬆️  Jameis Winston player prop: Over 34.5 pass attempts (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Over the last five games, Jaxson Dart never attempted more than 33 passes, and threw fewer than 30 passes in three of those games. 

A lot of that lack of passing volume had to do with the Giants' coaching staff wanting to make use of his elite running ability, as Dart had seven or more carries in four of his seven games as a starter. But many of those runs were also scrambles out of the pocket, and the less elusive Jameis Winston will not be tucking it and running as often on designed pass plays.

This is new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly and interim head coach Mike Kafka’s chance to employ a risk-free attitude and open up the offense more to avoid a stingy Green Bay run defense that allows the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.

There is great value in making this play at BetMGM. Not only is Winston’s O/U of pass attempts as high as 35.5 at the other best sports betting sites, but BetMGM is the only one charging less than -118 in juice (54.13% implied odds) to back the Over. If Winston attempts at least 35 passes, my $10 winning wager would net $9.52 in profits.

6️⃣ Best Packers vs. Giants touchdown scorer bet

🔥  Christian Watson TD pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (+250) ⭐⭐⭐

Packers wide receiver Christian Watson has not scored and has only averaged four targets per game in his three games since coming back from injury. But I am expecting him to break his touchdown drought against a leaky Giants pass defense.

New York has allowed the third-most targets, receptions, and receiving yards to wide receivers this season. 

This is an especially good matchup for Watson, who leads the team in receiving yards since Week 8, while the Giants have allowed the third-most yards on deep targets. In addition, the Giants play man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate, and Watson leads the team in receiving yards on deep passes and against man coverage since returning from injury.

Compared to Watson’s +230 anytime touchdown odds on the low end of the market, the +250 odds at FanDuel are a steal. If Watson scores his first touchdown of the season, my $10 winning wager would return $25 in profits.

📊 Packers vs. Giants anytime touchdown scorer odds today

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 11.

📺 How to watch Packers vs. Giants

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• TV: FOX

💡 NFL expert picks today

Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 11 throughout the week.

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• NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
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