NFL Over/Under Picks, Predictions Week 11 : Will High Week 10 Scoring Carry Over?
Week 10 saw point totals soar beyond Week 9 levels in what was one of the highest scoring weeks of the season. Read on for our top Over/Under NFL Week 11 picks.
Defense appeared to be optional during Week 10 NFL action, with 10 games resulting in 40+ points and an astounding five matchups finishing with 50+ points. Not to mention this was despite the fact that both the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals had the week off, sitting fourth and sixth in points per game this season.
The New England Patriots and New York Jets are the other two teams coming off bye weeks, thus adding a couple of middling scorers back into the fold. Squads with Week 11 byes include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Seattle Seahawks – meaning another pair of top-10 NFL scoring teams (Seattle and Miami) will be off. What can we expect from Week 11?
Here are our top Over/Under NFL Week 11 picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook: pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale).
NFL Week 11 Over/Under Picks
- Bears-Falcons Over 49 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
- Lions-Giants Under 45 (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
- Bengals-Steelers Over 41 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★★
Bears vs. Falcons Over/Under Pick
Over 49 (-110) ★★★★★
The total for this contest is set quite high, and that’s no accident. The Falcons and Bears respectively sit sixth and seventh in opponent points per game, while being middle-of-the-pack in scoring. In fact, Chicago’s feast-or-famine play style spoiled some absolutely electric performances from starting quarterback Justin Fields. Over his last three games, Fields amassed 441 passing yards, 385 rushing yards, and 11 total touchdowns while throwing just one interception. Unfortunately, he’s also 0-3 over that span.
Atlanta has struggled to score the last couple weeks, largely due in part to starting slinger Marcus Mariota's inconsistent play. After three straight games recording a QB passer rating of 105.2 or higher, he’s had a couple of rough tilts against the L.A. Chargers and Carolina Panthers. Still, the Falcons’ offense has been better than initially expected most of the year. In a high-event matchup against the Bears, the Over is the more likely result.
Lions vs. Giants Over/Under Pick
Under 45 (-105) ★★★★★
The Cinderella story of the Giants continues to dominate the headlines. At 7-2, they would usually be running away with the NFC East title; however, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles continue to hold that crown thanks to their own hot run. New York’s ability to close out low-scoring games has been one of its biggest bright spots, especially given its tendency to lose single-possession games last season.
On the other side of the field, the 3-6 Detroit Lions are having another losing season – partially due to several injuries. Their silver lining has been the O-line, which has hummed along at 24.3 PPG (NFL ninth). Unfortunately, things haven’t been as smooth lately. Detroit scored 15 or less points in three of its last five matchups, and it'll be tough to change that against a stingy Giants defense.
Bengals vs. Steelers Over/Under Pick
Over 41 (-110) ★★★★★
A lot has changed since the Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers last met in Week 1 – a game where Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow threw four interceptions en route to a slim 23-20 loss. Since then, the Bengals haven’t won as much as they’d like, but a 5-4 record also isn’t awful. Especially considering Joe Cool seems to have gotten his groove back. Star wideout Ja’Marr Chase is still absent, but luckily another talent, wide receiver Tee Higgins is ready to go after a restful bye.
Both Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Cincy’s current number-two wideout, should feast against the NFL's worst secondary. The Steelers are decent at stopping the run, but almost anything gets through their airspace. Pittsburgh may be second-last in the league in PPG (15.6), but anything it does will be a bonus as the Bengals could feasibly smash the Over by themselves.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 11 Over/Under Picks
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NFL Week 11 Over/Under picks made 11/16/2022 at 5:17 p.m. ET
