NFL Over/Under Picks, Predictions Week 10: Will Scoring Rebound to Week 8 Levels?
Scoring decreased leaguewide in Week 9, with only six games resulting in 40-plus points. Here are our top Over/Under bets for Week 10.
Defense was the point of emphasis in Week 9, as 17 teams scored 21 points or fewer, and only two quarterbacks threw for 300-plus yards. A lot of points and productivity were being generated on the ground too, with all but five games featuring a player who rushed for at least 93 yards.
Six teams were on a bye in Week 9, including the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers. However, only the New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and New England Patriots are off in Week 10.
Here are our top NFL Over/Under Week 10 bets (odds via BetRivers, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook).
Check out our ATS pick rankings, upset picks, odds and lines, and picks roundup for Week 10.
NFL Week 10 Over/Under Picks
Vikings vs. Bills Over/Under Pick
Under 44 (-110) ★★★★★
If someone had told you before the season the Vikings (7-1) would hold a better record than the Bills (6-2) heading into their Week 10 matchup, would you have believed them? Something changed in Minnesota following the team's last loss in Week 2. The Vikings have now won six straight games heading into their toughest test yet.
Minnesota ranks fifth-best in the NFC while allowing 161 points, but that pales in comparison to the incredibly low 118 points the Bills have given up. The Vikings may be a bottom-10 team in passing yards allowed, but the club is averaging fewer than two touchdowns against per game.
The Bills will likely rack up points as usual, but the Vikings won’t be a complete pushover. Minnesota’s inability to score points against one of the league's best defenses will be the biggest factor in keeping this total below 44.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Over/Under Pick
Over 50.5 (-108) ★★★★
The Chiefs were widely expected to win the AFC West, and that’s where they currently reside despite allowing nearly 24 points per game. They've coughed up 17 passing touchdowns, which is tied with the Steelers for the NFL's worst mark. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes can and has been leading the charge to outscore most of the squad's problems, meaning a lot of the Chiefs' games have been shootouts.
Jacksonville is certainly used to that type of game script and will probably be forced to throw the ball a lot while likely trailing. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been pretty inconsistent in 2021, but he’s also recorded a QBR of 109 or higher on four separate occasions. The Over is the wise play in a passing-oriented matchup this juicy.
Cardinals vs. Rams Over/Under Pick
Under 42 (-110) ★★★★★
What a disastrous season it's been for the Los Angeles Rams, who certainly didn’t expect to start off 3-5 after winning Super Bowl LVI. A lot of the disappointment has been directed toward starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, who's only thrown four touchdowns over six weeks since tossing for three in Week 2. The team's defense has been faring well mostly, but it’s very hard to win games while only averaging 16.4 points per contest.
Across the field, the Cardinals have been trying to find their groove as well. Like the Rams, they’ve dropped four of their last five games while averaging 33 points against per matchup over the last three weeks. The return of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been helpful, but that came right when the team's second-best wideout Marquise Brown suffered an injury.
These teams are averaging a combined 39 points per game. There are simply more paths to the Under in this matchup.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 10 Over/Under Picks
NFL Over/Under picks made 11/9/2022 at 3:36 p.m. ET
