NFL Over/Under Odds, Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: Niners' Offense to Stay Hot
The playoffs have finally arrived, so it’s time to sift through the matchups to identify value in the totals market. Read on for our top Wild Card Weekend Over/Under picks.
After going 3-for-3 on our Over/Under picks the regular season's final weekend, expect the edge to be a little more difficult to find in the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs. Though the talent disparity between teams decreases at this time of year, there are still plenty of ways to find some favorable plays for Wild Card Weekend.
Here are our best NFL Over/Under Wild Card Weekend picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 18
- Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers Over 42 (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- L.A. Chargers-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 47.5 (-110 across the board) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills Under 43.5 (-110 across the board) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL O/U Predictions
Seahawks-49ers Over 42 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The total in this weekend’s No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup is understandably low given San Francisco's defense can shut down opposing offenses. In two regular-season meetings, Seattle scored just 20 combined points across two losses. The total in both games finished at just 34 points.
The 49ers have been more efficient and effective in scoring over the last few weeks than other time this season. With quarterback Brock Purdy letting his talented teammates carry the load, San Francisco scored 37 or more points in each of its last three games. The Niners cleared 30 points in four straight home contests.
The total sits at 42.5 at the majority of sportsbooks, but PointsBet currently has the number at 42. The standard -110 odds on an Over bet make PointsBet the most favorable place to wager. A five-star play at 42, this recommendation drops to four-stars if the total gets to 43.
Chargers-Jaguars Under 47.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The headlines for this weekend’s matchup between the AFC’s No. 4 and No. 5 seeds will be dominated by the QB matchup. It appears the sportsbooks fell victim to the hype, as the current total feels like it’s being pushed by ill-advised wishful thinking for a shootout.
The total currently sits at 47.5 with -110 odds across the board after opening lower. Prior to Week 18’s strange game in Denver, the Chargers saw five straight matchups fall below this total. The Jaguars haven’t had a game clear 36 total points in any of their last three.
If the trends reverse to send the total back below 47, this four-star recommendation shifts to a three-star play. If the number were to keep climbing as the week progresses, we’d flirt with five-star territory at 49.
Dolphins-Bills Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though QB Josh Allen and the Bills could eat enough Fish to carry this total on their own, I feel pretty confident projecting minimal contributions from the Dolphins. Miami is expected to start Skylar Thompson at quarterback after ruling out Tua Tagovailoa.
Across four games this season where Thompson played, Miami averaged 16.25 points. That number should be lower against a Buffalo defense allowing 17.9 points per game. If Teddy Bridgewater is the starter, the total might creep back up a bit--but we’d still like the Under.
Tua's news sent the total that reached as high as 47 across affiliated books back down to 43.5 with standard -110 across the board odds. We hate missing the window on the most favorable odds but I’ve still got this Under as a four-star play as long as the number stays above 43.
NFL Over/Under picks made 1/11/2023 at 3:16 p.m. ET.
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