NFL Betting Trends to Know for Wild Card Weekend: Will Upset Streak Continue?

Top NFL betting trends to know for Wild Card Weekend.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 10, 2023 4:08 AM EST • 3 minute read

In 86% of the previous 15 wild-card playoff rounds, there has been at least one outright upset. We dive into that and more in our list of Wild Card Weekend trends to know in the NFL.

One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.

For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Wild Card Weekend (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top NFL Betting Trends for Wild Card Weekend

Underdogs went 15-3 ATS in wild-card games leading into 2022, but favorites went 5-1 ATS in the six games last year.

Perhaps we can chalk the success of favorites in last year’s wild-card round up to a correction among the oddsmakers after underdogs covered better than 83% of the previous 18 wild-card games. The only underdog who covered in the opening round last year was the San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Dallas Cowboys 23-17 outright as 3.5-point underdogs. And in the previous nine years, road teams are 23-16-1 ATS in wild-card games.

Since 2007, at least one underdog has won a wild-card game outright in 13 of the past 15 seasons.

Over the previous 15 years, 2012 and 2016 were the only times favorites won all wild-card round games. But, more often than not, teams that win also cover. Outright winners are 54-7-1 ATS in the previous 62 wild-card games.

Want a possible candidate to extend that streak this year? Tampa Bay is +130 ML underdogs against Dallas, and Tom Brady is a perfect 7-0 SU in his career against the Cowboys.

49ers (-10) vs. Seahawks, Bills (-10.5) vs. Dolphins

Home teams favored by 10 or more points are 6-0 ATS in the wild-card round.

This is a small sample size, which makes sense, considering teams good enough to make the playoffs are not typically such a big underdog. However, that dominance by double-digit favorites is eye-popping, as is the trend that favorites of 10-plus points in any round of the playoffs are 8-1 ATS.

However, the 49ers and Buffalo Bills are part of somewhat conflicting trends this week, as both teams face divisional opponents. Home teams facing divisional opponents are 5-9-1 ATS in the wild-card round since 2003. This latest trend also applies to the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 5.5-point favorites over the division-rival Baltimore Ravens.

The 49ers, Bills, and Bengals went a combined 3-3 ATS in their six meetings against the opponents they will face this week. San Francisco covered both meetings with Seattle, Miami covered both with Buffalo, and Cincinnati and Baltimore split their two meetings from a SU and ATS perspective.

Chargers-Jaguars O/U 47, Dolphins-Bills O/U 44, Giants-Vikings O/U 47.5, Cowboys-Buccaneers O/U 45

Of the last 35 wild-card games with totals of 44 or higher, the Under is 25-9-1.

While four of the six games this weekend fit these criteria, keep an eye on the totals in the Seahawks-49ers and Ravens-Bengals matchups, as both are at 43.5 now.

Since 2002, Unders are 50-33-1 in wild-card games and have cashed in 16 of the 24 games over the last four years. In addition, of the 20 No. 3-seed-vs.-No. 6-seed wild-card matchups over the previous 10 seasons, the Under is 16-3-1.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”