NFC South Odds: Can Favorite Saints, Buccaneers Steal Division Title From Falcons?
It took only two weeks for the preseason favorite Atlanta Falcons to lose their grip on the NFC South odds. And they haven't even played their second game yet.
The Falcons (0-1) enter tonight as underdogs by the Monday Night Football odds to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, which would drop them to 0-2 entering Week 3.
That comes after an offseason of hype that had many - myself included - eyeing their Super Bowl odds with an expected cakewalk in the NFC South.
Instead, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) and New Orleans Saints (2-0) are tied for the division lead after upset wins in Week 2. And our best sports betting sites expect one of those two to ultimately claim the NFC South crown.
Odds to win the NFC South
NFC South odds from our best NFL betting sites | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +135 ❄️ | +170 🔥 | +160 | +140 | +140 |
| Saints | +140 | +130 | +140 | +130 | +140 |
| Falcons | +330 | +280 ❄️ | +300 | +350 🔥 | +300 |
| Panthers | +15000 🔥 | +4400 ❄️ | +5000 | +6000 | +10000 |
NFC South favorites
Odds ahead of Falcons vs. Eagles prediction on Monday Night Football.
New Orleans Saints (+140)
We broke this down in our NFL trends following Sunday's Week 2 action, but the Saints are off to a historic start. And the market has taken notice.
New Orleans has won two games by 25-plus points and owns the league's best point differential (plus-62) by a wide margin. The first-team offense scored on 15 straight possessions before the end of Sunday's 44-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys, and the defense has already forced five turnovers.
Since the NFL merger, only two teams have scored as many points as the Saints (91) through two games - the 2009 Saints and 1971 Cowboys - and both won the Super Bowl. What does that mean for this year's Saints, who are still 35/1 long shots to win it all at BetMGM?
New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has revitalized this offense, though Derek Carr has led the NFL in passing TDs (19) and passer rating (124.3) since Week 14 of last season, so it's not like this came out of nowhere for New Orleans.
While the odds movement has been dramatic, this feels more like a proper recalibration than an overreaction. I'd still wait to see how the Saints look next week against the Eagles before going all-in at these +140 odds, which pay $14 in profit for every $10 wagered.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+170)
Last year, the Buccaneers stunned the league by making the playoffs in Baker Mayfield's first year under center. And they haven't skipped a beat this season.
Mayfield (185 yards, TD) didn't light it up in last week's win over the Detroit Lions, but the defense scored two critical takeaways to steal victory on the road.
Mayfield also relied on his legs twice on a critical drive in the third quarter - which included the eighth rushing TD of his career - to secure the lead for good.
Most importantly, Todd Bowles' group is 2-0 for the fourth consecutive season, and the Bucs won the division each of the previous three times. If that happens again, a $10 bet at these +170 odds via FanDuel would return a $17 profit.
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Atlanta Falcons (+350)
Is it too soon to sound the alarm in Atlanta? The Falcons profiled as legitimate NFC contenders thanks in large part to their new-look offense under Kirk Cousins, but they scored just 10 points in a concerning Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Perhaps the most bizarre part of that loss was the team's commitment to pistol and shotgun looks, which it ran on 96% of its offensive snaps. That clearly didn't work in Week 1, though it seems like new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is committed to it moving forward.
We'll see how that unit looks tonight against the Eagles, but it appears our best sportsbooks have already taken a stand against this group in favor of the two undefeated teams ahead of them in the standings.
I'd be intrigued by these +350 odds at Caesars after Atlanta was dealing as the clear favorite just over a week ago, especially if the offense can work through the early growing pains of a new system.
That said, we could see these odds get even better if the Falcons lose tonight as expected, so bet accordingly.
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Carolina Panthers (+15000)
We're 11 days into the NFL regular season, and the Panthers are 150/1 long shots to win the NFC South.
To put that in context, those DraftKings odds imply a mere 0.66% chance of them winning the division, and a $10 bet would return $1,500 in profit if they do.
Maybe they'll turn things around after Monday's news that former No. 1 pick Bryce Young will hit the bench for next week's road tilt against the Raiders.
That led some of our best sports betting apps to slash the Panthers' division odds in half with Andy Dalton taking over under center.
The move still won't fix Carolina's dearth of talent on offense ... and defense ... and special teams ... but it could provide a spark for the worst team in the NFL. Just don't expect that to net a division title anytime soon.
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