Why Matthew Stafford Will Win The MVP in His 17th NFL Season: Prediction, Odds & Best Bet

For the first 12 years of his career, Matthew Stafford felt like a superstar lost at sea - a former No. 1 pick who flashed immense talent with the Detroit Lions but had just four winning seasons to show for it. Then he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams and immediately won a Super Bowl to punctuate a Hall of Fame-worthy career.

Now, five years later, Stafford has upped the ante with perhaps the most impressive season of his 17-year tenure. The Rams star enters Week 15 as the prohibitive favorite by the NFL MVP odds to win the award for the first time - something that seemed nearly impossible this preseason but feels all but inevitable with four weeks left to go.

Here's a look at the latest Matthew Stafford MVP odds, his case to win it, and why there's still time to profit on his historic season.

Matthew Stafford MVP odds

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Stafford looked like he might be running away with this race just two weeks ago, when he was priced shorter than -200 odds to win MVP across our best NFL betting sites. Then New England Patriots QB Drake Maye - the only other player with a legitimate chance to win this award - threw for two touchdowns against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football to seize the top spot once again.

Fittingly, Stafford put on a clinic with 281 passing yards and three touchdowns last week against the Arizona Cardinals to wrestle back favorite status from Maye, who was on a bye week. The Patriots QB could very well steal back his perch if he beats the Buffalo Bills this week, though Stafford is the safer bet of the two entering Week 15.

Why Stafford is the MVP favorite

Let me admit my biases up front: outside of those in Los Angeles, Detroit, and Athens, Ga., there may be no bigger fan of Stafford than yours truly, who bet on the Pro Bowl passer to win MVP ahead of each of his first four seasons in Los Angeles.

He received votes just once in that stretch - an eighth-place finish in 2023 - and when he entered this season dealing with a seemingly worrisome back injury that sidelined him throughout the preseason, I held off on an MVP bet for the first time since the pandemic.

I wasn't alone: Stafford opened as a 50/1 long shot at BetMGM to win MVP this season, and in the days ahead of the Rams' final NFL preseason game, Stafford was still trading at 35/1 odds, which implied just a 2.78% chance he'd win it. Only 2.9% of the total money wagered on that market had come in on the former No. 1 pick.

Four months later, those few savvy bettors are in line for a fortune: Stafford is the runaway favorite entering NFL Week 15 with his odds ranging from -160 to -180. Those all imply just over a 60% chance that he'll hear his name when the NFL announces the MVP winner two days before his 38th birthday.

In hindsight, the same factors that drew me to bet Stafford each of the last four seasons have all come to fruition this year: the Rams have been ruthlessly efficient under center with Stafford and offensive mastermind Sean McVay calling the shots, and this offense features elite weapons with Puka Nacua emerging as one of the best receivers in the sport.

While Stafford has been knocked for "stat-padding" amid his historic 2025 campaign, his pure passing volume has remained consistent throughout his tenure in L.A. Yet he currently leads all QBs in passing touchdowns (35), passer rating (113.1), and adjusted net yards per attempt (8.37) - all strong indicators of an MVP award coming his way.

Will Stafford win MVP in 2025?

As mentioned earlier, the latest odds projected just over a 60% chance that Stafford wins his first MVP award in his 17th season. Even that feels low to me.

Quarterbacks have won the MVP award in 14 of 15 seasons since 2010. Nine of those 14 passers have led the NFL in touchdown rate, which has been the single-biggest bellwether for this award in the last 15 years.

If that holds true this year, this race won't be close - Stafford has thrown for a TD on 8.1% of his attempts, far surpassing his Rams predecessor (and Lions successor) in Jared Goff (6.3%). Stafford also leads the NFL in success rate (55%) while ranking second in interception rate (0.9%) and sack rate (3.79%), fourth in yards per game (258), and fifth in QBR (68.8).

As if that wasn't enough, his Rams enter Week 15 as the clear favorites by the latest Super Bowl odds, at nearly half the price of the rival Seattle Seahawks. Those two will face off again in Week 16 in a game that could cement Stafford's MVP candidacy if Los Angeles sweeps its rival to potentially clinch the top seed in the NFC.

Stafford was trading at plus-money odds last week after Maye put on a show in prime time - such is the nature of a volatile market like this one. But time is running out for Maye (or anyone else) to close the gap on Stafford, who has engineered one of the most efficient seasons we've ever seen and shows no signs of slowing down.

After winning his first Lombardi Trophy five years ago, it feels like all that promise Stafford has flashed for nearly two decades will finally pay off with individual hardware this season. And if you missed out on a preseason bet as I did, there's still value at these -160 odds, which would turn a $100 bet into a $62.50 profit if the prophecy comes true.

Prediction: Matthew Stafford to win MVP (-160 via FanDuel)

Matthew Stafford stats 2025

Latest stats from Pro Football Reference; rank among qualified QBs with at least 10 starts entering Week 15.