Lamar Jackson NFL Player Props, Odds Week 16: Predictions for Ravens vs. 49ers on Christmas Day

In what should be one of the best games of the year, our expert predictions call for Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson to have a big game against the 49ers.

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 25, 2023 3:57 PM EST • 5 minute read

The San Francisco 49ers host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football, as we make our best Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.

In the previous week's game, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 14-of-24 passes for 171 yards, securing one touchdown but also registering one interception.

Despite relatively modest passing statistics, Jackson made a significant impact by contributing 12 carries for 97 yards, playing a pivotal role in guiding the Ravens to a convincing 23-7 victory. His dual threat of passing and rushing proved instrumental in securing the team's success in that matchup.

This season, Jackson has thrown 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing for 741 yards and five touchdowns. How will he perform this week against a defense allowing the second-fewest points in the league?

In addition to our NFL Christmas Day predictions, Ravens-49ers prediction, Ravens-49ers parlay, and Brock Purdy player props, here are our best Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for the Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 16 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for Christmas Day

Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 rush attempts (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 completions (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer (+195 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

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Lamar Jackson player props

Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 rush attempts (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It's clear that the 49ers boast one of football's top defenses. They've allowed the 15th-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season. Although they'll probably frequently disrupt Jackson in this match, that shouldn't deter him from seizing opportunities to run when they arise.

Jackson has run the ball at least 11 times in his last three games. In his last six games, he’s rushed at least eight times. While that puts this far from a guarantee, the price is also favorable to the public. Jackson may struggle to pick up yards against the Ravens, but that won’t stop him from attempting to make plays with his legs like he’s done throughout his whole career.

The price for this Over prop is listed at +104 or better at all the major NFL prop betting sites. FanDuel currently has the best price listed, so we’d recommend wagering there. However, if this number drops to 9.5, we’d take that over for a worse price before we take over 10.5 for +120.

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Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 completions (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Getting a good price for this prop is not easy. Caesars has the Under listed with a price of -139, while three of the four remaining major NFL prop betting sites are listed at -130 or higher. Only bet365 is offering this prop for less than -130, even though this number is really low.

Jackson has completed 18 or fewer passes in four of his last five games. This season, he’s completed more than 20 passes seven times, but five of those performances came in the first seven weeks of the season.

The Ravens lead the league in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. Though the 49ers are hard to run against, the Ravens won’t change their identity in this game. Expect a lot of runs as they try to keep the ball away from the Raven’s high-powered offense. With that game plan, it’s unlikely Jackson will go above his season average of 19 in this game.

Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer (+195 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Jackson hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in seven games. Because he scored two touchdowns in consecutive weeks earlier this season, he’s only scored a rushing touchdown in three games all year. Yet, this is one of the three best props for Jackson this week.

It’s too expensive to take Jackson’s passing touchdowns Under, and going with the Over for that same passing touchdown prop isn’t valuable enough. Meanwhile, Jackson’s passing yards prop is set higher than it should be, but if the Ravens are playing from behind, then he may clear it.

Therefore, Jackson to score an anytime touchdown, despite his lack of success for more than half of the season, is our third play of the week. The 49ers are only allowing 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game this season, but Jackson will have plenty of opportunities to score in what should be a high-scoring matchup. That being said, don’t take this any lower than the price being offered at FanDuel.

Lamar Jackson player prop picks made 12/23/2023 at 11:08 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.