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Joe Flacco NFL Player Props, Odds Week 17: Predictions for Jets vs. Browns on TNF

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: December 28, 2023 6:19 PM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

Joe Flacco #15 of the Cleveland Browns warms up prior to the game as we make our Joe Flacco NFL player props predictions and picks for Week 17 against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.
Joe Flacco #15 of the Cleveland Browns warms up prior to the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images via AFP.

We make our top Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds, as the Cleveland Browns quarterback looks to keep his hot streak going on Thursday Night Football against the New York Jets.

It appeared the Cleveland Browns were destined to miss the postseason amid their various struggles under center. Then, they signed 38-year-old Joe Flacco to their practice squad. Since then, Flacco has led Cleveland to a 3-1 record, and the Browns are on the cusp of a playoff berth.

Flacco will make his fifth start of the season on Thursday Night Football, this time against his most recent employer, the New York Jets. He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,307) and touchdowns (10) during that span.

Can he keep rolling against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Thursday evening?

As part of our NFL predictions for Week 17, and in addition to our Jets vs. Browns prediction and our Jets vs. Browns NFL player props, here are our best Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions for the Jets vs. Browns Week 17 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

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Joe Flacco player props

Joe Flacco to throw an interception (-175 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Look, nobody likes to bet anything with a short price. If you choose to ignore this wager entirely because of that, so be it. But don't conflate negative odds with negative value.

While Flacco has led the league in yards and touchdowns since taking over in Week 13, the big-armed QB also paces the field in interceptions (seven) and has been responsible for six turnover-worthy plays, tied for the fourth-most by any player in that stretch.

Some of that is sheer volume. While Flacco's turnover-worthy play rate (3.1%) ranks 11th among 22 players with at least 100 dropbacks in December, his 175 attempts are by far the most in the league over the last four weeks. Only 50.3% of them have been on target - the worst mark by any QB this season with at least four starts.

None of this is new for Flacco, who has thrown at least one interception in 14 of 21 starts (66.7%) - including all four this season - since leaving the Baltimore Ravens in 2019. Now he faces a Jets defense that ranks eighth in interceptions (14) and picked off two passes last week against the Washington Commanders.

This prop is dealing as short as -190 at DraftKings, but I'd recommend betting this at -175 via BetMGM, which implies a 63.6% chance of cashing this ticket. I like our chances there.

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Jets vs. Browns bonus codes

Joe Flacco Under 230.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

As we mentioned before, Flacco is leading the league in passing yards per game (326.8) since taking over in Week 13. He'll have a tough time keeping up that pace on Thursday against the best secondary in the NFL.

All four defenses that Flacco has faced this month rank 16th or worse in EPA/pass and 22nd or worse in total pass defense. Compare that to the Jets, who rank fifth in EPA/pass and second in pass defense (168.6 YPG) and have surrendered just 150 yards per game to opposing passers in December.

This defense is also plenty familiar with Flacco, having faced him in practice from 2020-22, and has the personnel to match up with red-hot receiver Amari Cooper on the outside. New York boasts two of the NFL's top-10 graded corners (min. 800 snaps) in Sauce Gardner (second) and D.J. Reed (10th), per PFF, with both ranking in the top six in fewest yards allowed.

Here's the list of QBs who have thrown for more than 230 yards against the Jets this season: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa. That's it. All four of those quarterbacks were favored at one point atop the NFL MVP odds this year, and they're all a tier (or three) above Flacco.

The only reason this rates as a three-star play is the aforementioned volume: Flacco has attempted 40-plus passes in all four starts this year, though his team was facing much inferior pass defenses then, and the Browns enter Thursday as touchdown favorites. Barring a crazy game script, this should cash.

Joe Flacco player prop picks made Tuesday at 10:05 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.