Bills vs. Rams Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The last time the Bills and Rams met in December 2024, Los Angeles won a 44-42 thriller. But rather than calling for another offensive explosion in my Bills vs. Rams prediction, I expect Los Angeles to cover the spread while taking advantage of a vulnerable Buffalo secondary.
This is a matchup between the two top teams in terms of preseason FPI chances to win the Super Bowl (Rams 14.9%, Bills 10.7%). Kickoff for this Monday Night Football matchup at SoFi Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC). The Rams are a 3.5-point betting favorite.
Bills vs. Rams picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 5 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Rams -3.5 (-102 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.98 units |
| Under 54.5 (-102 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.98 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.96 units
Bills vs. Rams prediction & best bet
Rams -3.5 (-102 via BetMGM)
Buffalo’s defense was always bound to go through some growing pains switching from Sean McDermott’s 4-3 scheme to new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s 3-4. But last week was a low point in allowing Drake Maye to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week after New England entered the game tied for the league’s worst scoring offense. In fact, the Patriots’ 36 points were the third fewest through three games by a reigning conference champion, and then proceeded to drop 29 on the road at Buffalo.
The Bills now bring a tired defense across the country after allowing New England to generate 26 first downs and 405 yards, with four drives of eight or more plays.
The Rams’ pass-catching duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should cause Buffalo fits, especially if cornerbacks Dee Alford (ankle) and Christian Benford (toe) remain out or are limited. Nacua has also proven he is capable of going off in this head-to-head matchup, as he turned in a 12/162/1 stat line against Buffalo in 2024.
📡 SBR Edge: Poor history as a 3-point 'dog
The last time Josh Allen and the Bills were as high as a three-point underdog, they were walloped 35-10 in a 2024 loss to the Ravens.
Built to negate Josh Allen
When analyzing a team’s chances of beating Buffalo, one has to be certain they can limit Josh Allen from his usual superhuman performances.
Los Angeles ranks second in pass defense this season, allowing 145.5 passing yards per game. That is a marked improvement from last year’s unit that ranked 19th while allowing 216.7 yards per game through the air.
A big reason for the Rams’ improvement in that regard is the offseason acquisition of cornerback Trent McDuffie, who has the second-best passer rating allowed in coverage (min. 10 targets). Thus, if DJ Moore is ruled out after leaving last week’s game with a shoulder injury, that will allow McDuffie to focus on Keon Coleman, who is coming off his third 100-yard receiving game of his career.
Score prediction: Rams 30, Bills 23
Bills vs. Rams odds
Bills vs. Rams opening odds
- Moneyline: Bills +115 | Rams -140
- Spread: Bills +2.5 (-108) | Rams -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-110)
How to watch Bills vs. Rams: Week 5
- Date: Monday, Oct. 12
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: ESPN/ABC
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