Coventry vs. Newcastle Prediction, Picks & Odds for Monday's Premier League Match
Matchweek 6 wraps up this afternoon and our Coventry vs. Newcastle prediction breaks down the final game of the slate by focusing on a couple of plays for the visitors: one on a SOT line, and one on their cards.
Coventry has had a rough beginning to the season, but even a draw on Monday will pull them back out of the drop zone. Newcastle is hanging in the middle of the table, a so-so start despite losing several key players over the summer. Action at Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry is set to get underway at 3 p.m. ET and will air on USA Network.
Coventry vs. Newcastle predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Over 2.5 cards | +162 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.81 units |
| Newcastle Under 5.5 shots on target | -163 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.31 units |
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Coventry vs. Newcastle best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Newcastle Over 2.5 cards (+162)
Coventry's wingbacks and attacking midfielders will force Newcastle into awkward defensive decisions when their initial press is beaten — it may not happen often, but it doesn't have to. Dasilva and van Ewijk provide wide outlets, while Mason-Clark and Rudoni can receive inside the fullbacks, creating potential recovery fouls for Gonzalez and Miley in particular.
John Brooks is on the whistle, with 4.9 yellows issued per game over the last two Premier League seasons (and even more to start this season). The visitors won't have to spend the whole game defending, but losing possession with their fullbacks advanced should create precisely the type of play we need to reach this one at a very solid price.
It's not coming as an official play, but I'll almost certainly have a quarter-unit on the Over 3.5 cards for Newcastle, too, with the +450 doing plenty of work.
🆚 Who will win Coventry vs. Newcastle?
Newcastle should have the bulk of possession on Monday, but a compact defensive shape from the host should keep this one competitive. Given the defensive woes Newcastle has shown to start the season, I'm thinking Coventry can hang around.
Score prediction: Coventry 1, Newcastle 1
More Coventry vs. Newcastle expert picks
Newcastle Under 5.5 shots on target (-163)
Coventry's back three will give them a route to crowding Newcastle's central attack, while keeping cover behind the wingbacks. With Grimes and Onyeka making things difficult for Wissa between the lines, Fernandez-Pardo will be stuck trying to deal with three defenders taking up space. No doubt the Magpies will create chances with Barnes and Murphy out wide, but those should more often than not result in crosses and attempts from less threatening positions.
Newcastle hasn't hit six on target in a single game this season, and Coventry has done a good job at home of suppressing SOT, with only Arsenal crossing this line. Small sample size, undoubtedly, but Newcastle is only posting 3.6 on target per game so far this season. I'm not even totally opposed to the Under 4.5 (+125) line, but this gives us a little more wiggle-room.
Coventry vs. Newcastle key stats
| Coventry | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-4 | 2-2-1 |
| Home/Away Record | 0-0-2 | 1-0-1 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WLLLLW | WWDWLW |
| Goals for | 1 | 9 |
| xG | 4.88 | 5.29 |
| Goals against | 10 | 9 |
| xGA | 8.64 | 9.05 |
| Average possession | 39% | 49.1% |
Coventry vs. Newcastle odds
Coventry vs. Newcastle projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Coventry vs. Newcastle; subject to change:
| Coventry (3-4-2-1) | Newcastle (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Rushworth (GK) | Hornicek (GK) |
| Mfuni (D) | Dedic (D) |
| Thomas (D) | Thiaw (D) |
| Pinnock (D) | Botman (D) |
| van Ewijk (M) | Hall (D) |
| Onyeka (M) | Gonzalez (M) |
| Grimes (M) | Miley (M) |
| Dasilva (M) | Murphy (M) |
| Rudoni (M) | Wissa (M) |
| Mason-Clark (M) | Barnes (M) |
| Thomas-Asante (F) | Fernando-Pardo (F) |
How to watch Coventry vs. Newcastle
- Date: Monday, Oct. 12
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Coventry Building Society Arena (Coventry, England)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network
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